Publicações: GABRIEL CONSTANTINO BLAIN Ver todos
Artigo de Pesquisa | Acesso aberto | 161 Impacts of climate change on drought: changes to drier conditions at the beginning of the crop growing season in southern Brazil

Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila, Gabriel Constantino Blain, Hilton Silveira Pinto, Regina Célia de Matos Pires, Vânia Rosa Pereira

Ano de publicação: 2017

Resumo:
The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December). Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting) of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus), we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

Palavras chave:
intensification of drought; drought Index; agricultural drought; crop yields

Link:
http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052018000100201&lng=en&tlng=en

Artigo de Pesquisa | Acesso aberto | 60 Using the normality assumption to calculate probability‐based standardized drought indices: selection criteria with emphases on typical events

Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila, Gabriel Constantino Blain, Vânia Rosa Pereira

Ano de publicação: 2017

Resumo:
Enhancing the capability of both standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for quantifying wet and dry events under distinct climate conditions is of paramount importance. The different recommendations of recent studies regarding the best distribution to calculate the SPEI and the lack of studies addressing the effect of different parameters estimation methods on the SPI motivated us to apply and adapt distinct testing methodologies to select candidate models for calculating these standardized drought indices (SDI). The study is based on two data sets. The first represents a tropical–subtropical region of Brazil. The second comprises the same weather stations that were used for developing the original version of the SPEI. The study also emphasized the performance of the models within the range of typical SDI values [−2.0 : 2.0]. Along with goodness‐of‐fit tests, we calculated the mean absolute errors between the indices values estimated from the candidate distributions, and their corresponding theoretical values derived from the standard normal distribution. The two‐parameter gamma and the generalized extreme value distributions are, respectively, recommended for general use in SPI and SPEI algorithms (1–12‐month timescales). The unbiased probability weighted moments are recommended to estimate the distributions parameters. The study also described a trade‐off between choosing the best model for the central part and for the tails of the distributions. This trade‐off suggests that the methodologies used to select models for the SDI algorithms may have to decide which part of the distribution (central or tails) should be emphasized. The behaviour of the errors among different wet/dry categories showed that both indices were only capable of representing drought and floods in a similar probabilistic way within the range [−2.0 : 2.0]. This feature supports our decision to emphasize model performances within such range.

Palavras chave:
drought; standardized precipitation index; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; trade-off; param-eter estimation

Link:
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5381

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Cidade Universitária "Zeferino Vaz"
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