Ano de publicação: 2023

O presente trabalho pretende abordar o projeto de educação patrimonial
denominado “O Vale Perdido”, o qual foi desenvolvido no município de Cubatão,
Estado de São Paulo. A pesquisa contextualiza o território, o célere processo de
industrialização a partir da segunda metade do século XX, define alguns conceitos
sobre patrimônio e educação patrimonial e os processos empíricos. O espaço no qual
se desenvolveu o projeto, o Vale do Itutinga Pilões, recebeu professores e alunos da
rede pública municipal num trabalho que requereu a participação interativa e
multidisciplinar das equipes envolvidas.

Educação patrimonial, Cubatão, Território.

http://www.revistaintellectus.com.br/artigos/81.989.pdf

Ano de publicação: 2023

Approximately 2.5 × 106 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year−1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year−1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Palavras chave:

Amazon, forest degradation.

Link:

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abp8622#abstract

Ano de publicação: 2022

This study aimed to evaluate the change in the air temperature and the impacts of heat waves using Climate Change Indexes on the physiological and productive responses of lactating Holstein cows. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature for 1981–2021 were used. Heat waves were determined using six Climate Change Indexes. Individual data on respiratory rate, rectal temperature, and milk yield were collected in the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. The temperature trend analysis showed a significant (p < 0.0001) increase in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and days in a heat wave. All six indexes increased significantly (p > 0.01). The increase in warm nights (> 20 °C) and the hottest days (> 35 °C) was the highest since 2010. Heat waves were classified into short (< 5 days) and long (> 5 days) of greater (> 36 °C) or lesser (< 36 °C) intensity. During the long and short heat waves of greater intensity, the respiratory rate increased (p < 0.05) until the fourth day. On the other hand, rectal temperature was higher (p < 0.05) from the fourth day until the end of the long heat waves. Therefore, the decrease in milk yield was significantly greater from the fourth or fifth day onwards. Finally, the evaluation method based on indexes was efficient to demonstrate the negative effects on physiological parameters and milk yield and can be indicated to evaluate heat stress in lactating cows. 

Climate Change Indexes, Heat stress, Milk production, Rectal temperature, Respiration rate. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-022-02374-3

Ano de publicação: 2022

Este trabalho teve como objetivo realizar um estudo de caso para chuvas intensas e seus impactos nas ocorrências de alagamentos na cidade de Campinas, São Paulo, no ano de 2019. Dados de chuva acumulada diária foram obtidos de 8 pluviômetros distribuídos na cidade e dados de alagamento foram obtidos junto à Defesa Civil municipal, referentes aos chamados atendidos. Na análise espacial, foi constatada uma relativa concordância com a ocorrência ou não de chuva entre os pluviômetros. No entanto, ficou evidente a variabilidade espacial da quantidade de chuva, o que demonstra a ocorrência de chuva localmente forte. A análise dos dados de alagamento permitiu determinar áreas mais propensas a esse tipo de evento. Aspectos como volume acumulado de chuva e configuração do relevo certamente proporcionam condições ideais para alagamentos. No entanto, a área mais afetada por alagamentos é relativamente mais elevada, o que sugere, por ser parte da região central e amplamente urbanizada, que a urbanização também contribui significativamente para a ocorrência de alagamentos. 

Chuva intensa, Alagamentos, Variabilidade espacial da chuva, Urbanização.

https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/labore/article/view/8667944

Ano de publicação: 2022

Inequalities in benefits from ecosystem services (ES) challenge the achievement of sustainability goals, because they increase the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to climate hazards. Yet the unequal effects of changes in ES, and of climate change more generally, on human well-being (HWB) are still poorly accounted for in decision-making around adaptation, particularly in tropical countries. Here, we investigate these dynamics through the lens of local peoples’ perceptions of ES in relation to human well-being (HWB), and how these are affected by climate change in three distinct regional case studies in the Atlantic Forest in Southeast of Brazil. Through structured questionnaires, we found that the local perceptions of important ES are region-dependent, particularly identifying services regulating local climate and air quality, water flow and quality, food provisioning, and cultural services of landscape esthetics related to forest regeneration. HWB was expressed through material (e.g., economic security, environmental conditions) and higher accounts of non-material (e.g., feelings, health and social connections) dimensions. Specific environmental changes were identified by 95% of those responding, 40% of whom included climate change as one of these. When asked about climate directly, 97% of those responding identified relevant changes in regionally relevant ways. Rising temperatures, unbalanced seasons, altered rainfall patterns, drought, increase of extreme events, and sea level rise are negatively affecting both material and non-material dimensions of HWB across regions. These perceived changes aligned with observed and projected climate changes in the regions. Benefits from ES accrue for HWB at different scales depending on the specific ES and region. For example, crop production by small farmers or exported in sugar cane, water captured for agricultural irrigation or used for urban supplies, and fish resources for local consumption and lifestyle or as a recreational attraction for visitors. Policy choices about such balances will affect local vulnerabilities to the expected future climate and other environmental changes in the region. This place fine-scale observations and the empowerment of local knowledge at the core of policy decisions about adaptation to support a climate-resilient future for traditional communities and small farmers. 

Human well-being, Ecosystem services, Climate change impacts, Inequalities, Material and non-material dimensions, Adaptation. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-022-01938-8#additional-information

Ano de publicação: 2022

Studies around the world show an increase in global average temperatures, with a consequent increase in extreme events and changes in the distribution of precipitation, causing a decrease in agricultural production and changes in planting areas. This study analyzed the exposure to climate risk that the coffee crop in the region of Alta Mogiana/SP, Brazil has been presenting in the past thirty years (1991-2021). Time series of daily data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. By the statistical tests we observed a trend of increase in maximum temperatures daily of approximately 1.4°C and minimum daily of 0.8°C in the municipalities of the region and a trend towards a decrease in precipitation of 0.9 mm daily, indicating greater exposure of the coffee crop in the region to climate risk and increased vulnerability for the coffee producer. In view of these analyses, a literature review was carried out, suggesting agroforestry systems and mechanical irrigation as the most promising strategies to manage climate risk in coffee plantations. In addition, drought-resistant cultivars, training courses for farmers, increased rural insurance, and nutritional control of the plants can also be considered efficient options for climate exposure in coffee plantations from Alta Mogiana.

Agriculture, climate change, climate risk management, coffee tree, Mann-Kendall.

https://www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/NZ9T3K3MSsFgjLGfT7kqrCj/?lang=en#

Ano de publicação: 2022

 
A seca é o principal fenômeno climático que ocorre no semiárido brasileiro. Nesta região, a constante ocorrência de eventos de seca atrelada aos inúmeros problemas sociais, acumulados ao longo da história desta região, resulta em riscos climáticos, sobretudo, para a produção agrícola. Os graves impactos econômicos e sociais enfrentados pela população do Semiárido, relacionados aos eventos de estiagens e secas, colocaram em destaque a importância do avanço de estudos sobre risco da seca à atividade agrícola na região. Nesse contexto, este estudo objetivou avaliar a distribuição espacial do risco climático referente à seca para a atividade agrícola nas mesorregiões Vale São Franciscano e Centro-Norte. Para a representação do risco climático, analisou-se o perigo climático (representado por categorias de seca) e a vulnerabilidade. As variáveis que compuseram a vulnerabilidade local foram: índice de manejo agrícola, índice de Firjan de Desenvolvimento Municipal (IFDM) e índice ambiental.  Observaram-se tendências de diminuição das chuvas locais e altas condições de vulnerabilidades dos agricultores da região, de modo geral. Assim sendo, constatou-se que não há condição de risco baixo para os municípios analisados, independente da intensidade da seca. Conclui-se, portanto, que a seca, enquanto um evento de múltiplas proporções, tem seu risco agravado a depender das condições de vulnerabilidades locais. 

 

Estiagem, perigo, vulnerabilidade. 

https://periodicos.ufpe.br/revistas/rbgfe/article/view/252836

Ano de publicação: 2022

To investigate the influence of climate on hospitalizations of sickle cell anemia (SCA) adults and children, we analyzed the health and meteorological parameters from a metropolis (1999-2018). 1462 hospitalizations were coded for SCA patients in crisis (M:F = 715:747) and 1354 hospitalizations for SCA patients without crisis (M:F = 698:656) [age = 22.9 vs 15.2 years and duration of hospitalization (DoH) = 5.7 vs 4.4 days, respectively,]. More hospitalizations were for adults than children in crisis, and for children than adults without crisis. More children and adults were hospitalized in winter andspring than in summer and autumn     Hospitalizations correlated positively with humidity (lag −5), maximum pressure (lag −2), mean pressure (lag −2), and thermal amplitude (lag −2), and negatively with maximum temperature (lag −3). DoH positively correlated with minimum temperature (lag −4). Understanding these complex associations would induce attitudinal/behavioral modifications among patients and their caregivers.

Sickle cell anemia, environmental parameters, meteorological parameters, Hospitalization, ICD-10. 

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09603123.2022.2098258?scroll=top&needAccess=true&role=tab

Ano de publicação: 2022

Entre 2012 e 2015 houve uma seca intensa no semiárido baiano. Nesse período, a mídia impressa da Bahia divulgou notícias sobre esse fenômeno climático. Este artigo objetivou analisar qualitativa e quantitativamente as notícias sobre a seca 2012-2015 difundidas pela mídia, bem como a relação entre a difusão das matérias e o volume de precipitação local. O método consistiu em: análise de conteúdo das matérias publicadas pela mídia baiana e a análise conjunta dos dados de precipitação e a quantidade de notícias. Os resultados demonstraram relação entre o número de notícias e o comportamento da precipitação, contudo, foram verificados erros conceituais e adjetivos pejorativos à seca. Concluiu-se que as notícias ainda sustentam o discurso do combate à seca e ignoram as causas do risco da seca na região. Assim, a informação sobre a seca, difundida pela mídia, é mais um perigo que o sertanejo enfrenta. 

Estiagem, Comunicação e Precipitação.

https://ojs.ufgd.edu.br/index.php/rbclima/article/view/15445

Ano de publicação: 2022

análise espacial multicritério; bacia hidrográfica; risco hídrico

Este trabalho teve por objetivo a caracterização e análise dos fatores fisiográficos da bacia do rio Atibaia e sua influência nos processos de enchentes e inundações, além de avaliar a suscetibilidade a eventos de inundação para o município de Campinas, nos anos de 1985 e 2019. Em um primeiro momento, foram utilizadas técnicas de geoprocessamento e índices definidos na literatura a fim de proporcionar uma compreensão abrangente da bacia do rio Atibaia quanto a seus atributos geométricos, de relevo e drenagem e sua influência aos processos de inundação, com o intuito de fornecer suporte à tomada de decisão referente às ações preventivas e mitigadoras dos impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais na região. Em um segundo momento, as características pedogeomorfológicas e de uso e ocupação da terra do município de Campinas foram processadas por meio de técnicas de geoprocessamento e aplicadas ao Processo Analítico Hierárquico com a finalidade de gerar o mapeamento específico do município quanto a sua suscetibilidade a inundações. O mapeamento permitiu conhecer os locais críticos do município de Campinas, elegendo áreas prioritárias às ações e programas governamentais no tocante à gestão urbana e ambiental, podendo orientar ainda a geração de novos estudos na escala de detalhe, com vistas à prevenção e contingência de possíveis impactos decorrentes dos processos de inundação.

https://www.scielo.br/j/ambiagua/a/jMwpgJt3XYmzpk6VHwmwK8Q/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2021

Transdisciplinary research is increasingly seen as critical for advancing climate change adaptation. Operationalizing transdisciplinary research in the global South, however, confronts ingrained cultural and systemic barriers to participatory research.

Climate change, Developing world 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01221-4

Ano de publicação: 2021

Em 24 de março de 2020, foi decretado confinamento parcial no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, como medida para desacelerar a disseminação da COVID-19. O decreto consistia na proibição de aglomerações e na recomendação para as pessoas permanecerem em casa, exceto em situações urgentes ou de extrema necessidade. Na esteira de estudos realizados em outros países, o artigo busca avaliar os impactos do confinamento na qualidade do ar em cinco cidades no Estado de São Paulo. Nosso estudo foi realizado com o material particulado e dióxido de nitrogênio enquanto indicadores da qualidade do ar e pela correlação das concentrações dos contaminantes com dados meteorológicos. Os resultados mostraram um aumento desses contaminantes em todas as cinco cidades dentro das primeiras semanas depois do confinamento, comparado às semanas que antecederam o decreto e com o mesmo período em anos anteriores. O resultado é inconsistente com os achados usualmente relatados em outros estudos. Portanto, foi definido um objetivo secundário a fim de investigar a possível causa (ou causas) da piora na qualidade do ar, o que revelou um aumento no número de incêndios. O tempo anormalmente seco favoreceu a queima de vegetação nas áreas agrícolas rurais e em pequenas áreas de vegetação próximas às cidades, além do limitado escoamento da poluição pela chuva, o que contribuiu à maior concentração de poluentes. Os achados sugerem hipóteses sobre os possíveis efeitos dessa situação de pior qualidade do ar sobre o agravamento de casos de COVID-19, porém são necessários mais estudos para uma avaliação completa. 

 

Poluição do Ar; Material Particulado; Dióxido de Nitrogênio; COVID-19; Incêndios Florestais

https://www.scielosp.org/article/csp/2021.v37n9/e00242320/en/

Ano de publicação: 2021

Buscando integrar alunos em sala de aula e facilitar o trabalho do professor, este trabalho explorou possibilidades de relacionamento entre os princípios do Desenho Universal de Aprendizagem (DUA) e o ensino de Climatologia para elaboração de materiais didáticos. Produziu-se um modelo de livro em formato físico e de e-book sobre a temática das “Nuvens” e questões sobre ciclo hidrológico e estrutura da atmosfera. No e-book, os temas foram relacionados à questão das Mudanças Climáticas. A temática climatológica justifica-se por ser um assunto presente no cotidiano de todos; os conceitos, no entanto, não são compreendidos por toda a população. Conclui-se que, quando os princípios do DUA são utilizados desde a concepção do projeto, como no presente caso, é possível explorar, de maneira global, metodologias e ferramentas que ampliem as oportunidades de aprendizagem de pessoas que podem compor, ou não, o público-alvo da Educação Especial.

Palavras chave:

Materiais didáticos, Educação, Nuvens.

Link:

https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/td/article/view/8664831

Ano de publicação: 2021

Áreas úmidas localizadas na região oeste de Minas Gerais vem sendo convertidas em terras agrícolas e de mineração de argila. O objetivo desse artigo foi avaliar as diferenças na concentração e distribuição de macro, micronutrientes e outros parâmetros físicos em solos de áreas úmidas usados para produção agrícola desde 1970 ou pela mineração, comparando com áreas úmidas naturais ou não impactadas, durante a estação seca. Para isso, amostras de solo foram coletadas em diferentes profundidades em 6 pontos. Por meio de trabalhos de campo, foi possível avaliar as mudanças morfológicas do solo e coletar amostras para realizar análises físico-químicas. As análises granulométricas e a química forneceram informações para melhor compreender a extensão dos impactos ambientais em decorrência de atividades econômicas desenvolvidas na área. Dentre os pontos analisados, notou-se mudanças morfológicas nas áreas de cultivo agrícola e principalmente na área de mineração, onde ocorre erosão laminar. A análise granulométrica mostrou mudança textural nos locais de cultivo agrícola, enquanto que os demais pontos foram classificados como textura argilosa ou muito argilosa. A análise química mostrou que as áreas de cultivo agrícola apresentaram teores
elevados de macro e micronutrientes nas camadas superficiais e a saturação por bases foi muito baixa em praticamente todos os pontos estudados. O local da Mineração se mostrou como o mais degradado e menos propício ao crescimento vegetal.

Zonas úmidas, Conservação, Impactos ambientais, Legislação.

https://portaldeperiodicos.animaeducacao.com.br/index.php/gestao_ambiental/article/view/9775

Ano de publicação: 2021

Nations will reaffirm their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26; www.ukcop26.org), in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021. Revision of the national commitments will play a key role in defining the future of Earth’s climate. In past conferences, the main target of Amazonian nations was to reduce emissions resulting from land-use change and land management by committing to decrease deforestation rates, a well-known and efficient strategy1,2. However, human-induced forest degradation caused by fires, selective logging, and edge effects can also result in large carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions1,2,3,4,5, which are not yet explicitly reported by Amazonian countries. Despite its considerable impact, forest degradation has been largely overlooked in previous policy discussions5. It is vital that forest degradation is considered in the upcoming COP26 discussions and incorporated into future commitments to reduce GHG emissions.

Climate change, Climate-change policy, Forest ecology.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00823-z

Ano de publicação: 2021

Esta pesquisa realizou um levantamento acerca dos materiais de apoio no tema “Água” disponíveis na internet em formato digital para alunos e professores utilizarem de forma complementar aos livros didáticos e cadernos do professor. Foram definidos três critérios para a avaliação dos materiais: análise de conteúdo, linguagem visual e contextualização, no qual foram atribuídos valores para a classificação final. Do total de materiais avaliados (31), 42% recebeu pontuação máxima de 10 pontos que mostrou a qualidade e interdisciplinaridade dos materiais disponíveis online, mas direcionados principalmente para alunos e professores do Ensino Fundamental II. A utilização de materiais de apoio em sala de aula em conjunto com o livro didático para o ensino do tema “Água” pode enriquecer o processo de ensino-aprendizagem ao apresentar o tema complexo de forma contextualizada, crítica e prática, essencial para uma educação comprometida com uma nova cultura da água. 

Interdisciplinaridade, Educação Ambiental, Contextualização, Complexidade, Educação científica, Educação ambiental.

https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/td/article/view/8667194

Ano de publicação: 2021

In this eight-year retrospective study, we evaluated the associations between climatic variations and the biological rhythms in plasma lipids and lipoproteins in a large population of Campinas, São Paulo state, Brazil, as well as temporal changes of outcomes of cardiovascular hospitalizations. Climatic variables were obtained at the Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture (University of Campinas - Unicamp, Brazil). The plasma lipid databases surveyed were from 27,543 individuals who had their lipid profiles assessed at the state university referral hospital in Campinas (Unicamp). The frequency of hospitalizations was obtained from the Brazilian Public Health database (DATASUS). Temporal statistical analyses were performed using the methods Cosinor or Friedman (ARIMA) and the temporal series were compared by cross-correlation functions. In normolipidemic cases (n=11,892), significantly different rhythmicity was observed in low-density lipoprotein (LDL)- and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (C) both higher in winter and lower in summer. Dyslipidemia (n=15,651) increased the number and amplitude of lipid rhythms: LDL-C and HDL-C were higher in winter and lower in summer, and the opposite occurred with triglycerides. The number of hospitalizations showed maximum and minimum frequencies in winter and in summer, respectively. A coincident rhythmicity was observed of lower temperature and humidity rates with higher plasma LDL-C, and their temporal series were inversely cross-correlated. This study shows for the first time that variations of temperature, humidity, and daylight length were strongly associated with LDL-C and HDL-C seasonality, but moderately to lowly associated with rhythmicity of atherosclerotic outcomes. It also indicates unfavorable cardiovascular-related changes during wintertime.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, Climatic variations, Lipoproteins, Seasonality.

https://www.scielo.br/j/bjmbr/a/GL6D83Yx5jJLzWhCkZwCMGD/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2021

Most leaf functional trait studies in the Amazon basin do not consider ontogenetic variations (leaf age), which may influence ecosystem productivity throughout the year. When leaf age is taken into account, it is generally considered discontinuous, and leaves are classified into age categories based on qualitative observations. Here, we quantified age-dependent changes in leaf functional traits such as the maximum carboxylation rate of ribulose-1,5-biphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (Rubisco) (Vcmax), stomatal control (Cgs%), leaf dry mass per area and leaf macronutrient concentrations for nine naturally growing Amazon tropical trees with variable phenological strategies. Leaf ages were assessed by monthly censuses of branch-level leaf demography; we also performed leaf trait measurements accounting for leaf chronological age based on days elapsed since the first inclusion in the leaf demography, not predetermined age classes. At the tree community scale, a nonlinear relationship between Vcmax and leaf age existed: young, developing leaves showed the lowest mean photosynthetic capacity, increasing to a maximum at 45 days and then decreasing gradually with age in both continuous and categorical age group analyses. Maturation times among species and phenological habits differed substantially, from 8 ± 30 to 238 ± 30 days, and the rate of decline of Vcmax varied from −0.003 to −0.065 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 day−1. Stomatal control increased significantly in young leaves but remained constant after peaking. Mass-based phosphorus and potassium concentrations displayed negative relationships with leaf age, whereas nitrogen did not vary temporally. Differences in life strategies, leaf nutrient concentrations and phenological types, not the leaf age effect alone, may thus be important factors for understanding observed photosynthesis seasonality in Amazonian forests. Furthermore, assigning leaf age categories in diverse tree communities may not be the recommended method for studying carbon uptake seasonality in the Amazon, since the relationship between Vcmax and leaf age could not be confirmed for all trees.

Palavras chave:

Biological Sciences, Plant Sciences and Forestry, Science and Mathematics, Books, Journals

Link:

https://academic.oup.com/treephys/article/42/5/922/6255983?login=true

Ano de publicação: 2021

The climate in the Amazon region is particularly sensitive to surface processes and properties such as heat fluxes and vegetation coverage. Rainfall is a key expression of the land surface–atmosphere interactions in the region due to its strong dependence on forest transpiration. While a large number of past studies have shown the impacts of large-scale deforestation on annual rainfall, studies on the isolated effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) on canopy transpiration and rainfall are scarcer. Here, for the first time, we systematically compare the plant physiological effects of eCO2 and deforestation on Amazon rainfall. We use the CPTEC Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM) with dynamic vegetation under a 1.5×CO2 experiment and a 100 % substitution of the forest by pasture grasslands, with all other conditions held similar between the two scenarios. We find that both scenarios result in equivalent average annual rainfall reductions (Physiology: −257 mm, −12 %; Deforestation: −183 mm, −9 %) that are above the observed Amazon rainfall interannual variability of 5 %. The rainfall decreases predicted in the two scenarios are linked to a reduction of approximately 20 % in canopy transpiration but for different reasons: the eCO2-driven reduction of stomatal conductance drives the change in the Physiology experiment, and the smaller leaf area index of pasturelands (−72 % compared to tropical forest) causes the result in the Deforestation experiment. The Walker circulation is modified in the two scenarios: in Physiology due to a humidity-enriched free troposphere with decreased deep convection due to the heightening of a drier and warmer (+2.1 ∘C) boundary layer, and in Deforestation due to enhanced convection over the Andes and a subsidence branch over the eastern Amazon without considerable changes in temperature (−0.2 ∘C in 2 m air temperature and +0.4 ∘C in surface temperature). But again, these changes occur through different mechanisms: strengthened west winds from the Pacific and reduced easterlies entering the basin affect the Physiology experiment, and strongly increased easterlies influence the result of the Deforestation experiment. Although our results for the Deforestation scenario agree with the results of previous observational and modelling studies, the lack of direct field-based ecosystem-level experimental evidence regarding the effect of eCO2 on moisture fluxes in tropical forests confers a considerable level of uncertainty to any projections of the physiological effect of eCO2 on Amazon rainfall. Furthermore, our results highlight the responsibilities of both Amazonian and non-Amazonian countries to mitigate potential future climatic change and its impacts in the region, driven either by local deforestation or global CO2 emissions.

Deforestation in the Amazon

Link:

https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/18/2511/2021/bg-18-2511-2021.html

Ano de publicação: 2021

Entre os anos de 2012 a 2015, o Brasil enfrentou uma condição de seca plurianual, atingindo diversos setores da sociedade civil. A redução da disponibilidade de água, especialmente no semiárido baiano, colocou em evidência as políticas hídricas públicas realizadas na Bahia, estado localizado na região Nordeste do Brasil. Nesse mesmo quadriênio crítico, em termos de baixas precipitações, os jornais locais realizaram a cobertura desse importante evento climático. O presente trabalho é baseado nas matérias publicadas por dois jornais de grande circulação no estado da Bahia. O objetivo foi analisar as notícias que abordavam os conceitos “combate à seca” e “convivência” com este evento e com o semiárido, publicadas pela mídia local. Para tanto, selecionou-se matérias veiculadas entre os anos de 2012 a 2015. Concluiu-se que a mídia permanece com a visão reducionista e fragmentada sobre o semiárido e o fenômeno da seca, não aderindo a uma importante abordagem desenvolvida a partir dos anos de 1990 por organizações sociais de convivência com a seca, que aborda princípios da sustentabilidade ambiental, econômica, social e cultural.

Gestão hídrica, Sertão, Semiaridez, Comunicação.

https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/caminhosdegeografia/article/view/56771

Ano de publicação: 2021

O artigo trata da reflexão a respeito da linearidade das relações causais que envolvem as mudanças ambientais –aqui identificadas como as transformações  dos  sistemas  naturais,  climáticos  e  socioculturais decorrentes do modo de vida contemporâneo- e seus impactos na subjetividade  (humana)  –dimensão  dos  sentimentos  e  sensações relacionados a estas mudanças. Para desenvolver o presente trabalho, foram realizados debates teórico conceituais com o objetivo de situar a pandemia covid 19 como desastre associado ao modo de vida contemporâneo presente no processo de urbanização das cidades. Quanto mais a vida diária é reconstituída na confluência entre o local e o global, em momentos de forte mudança ambiental -tais como o cenário distópico representado pelo advento COVID 19- mais os indivíduos sofrem, sentem medos e são desafiados a elaborar estratégias para sua própria sobrevivência. Desse modo, mais do que consequência ao desastre da pandemia, a subjetividade passa a ser conceituada como potencialidade transformadora -continuum dinâmico- ampliando seu alcance como perspectiva de ação diante do desastre. A incerteza em relação ao futuro pode suscitar processos de constituição de novas realidades, por meio da abertura de espaços políticos que favoreçam a criatividade, vista como estratégia de enfrentamento. Desse modo, a retomada de caminhos adaptativos frente às transformações em curso pode ser possível, se a “poética da existência” encontrar seu espaço de emergência e atuação. 

Modo de Vida Contemporâneo, Mudanças Ambientais e Climáticas, Riscos e Vulnerabilidade, Desastre, Relações de Causalidade, Subjetividade.

https://zenodo.org/record/4965886#.ZEvEGtLMLmg

Ano de publicação: 2021

Os estudos associando as mudanças climáticas e a saúde foram definidos como um campo de pesquisa oficial e de atuação nos anos 90, e, desde então, eles vêm aumentando significativamente, assim como a consciência sobre a influência da variabilidade climática e dos eventos extremos no surgimento de doenças infecciosas. Nesse sentido, diversos trabalhos vêm pontuando como perturbações nas condições ecológicas e climáticas podem impactar de modo potencial a saúde humana, ressaltando, ainda, que questões de cunho social, como localização geográfica, demografia e características nutricionais da população, estão relacionadas a surtos de doenças em todo o mundo. Com isso, este estudo teve o objetivo de analisar as doenças infecciosas relatadas pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS), como epidêmicas ou pandêmicas, demonstrando a relação dessas com as alterações climáticas e ambientais, destacando ainda a questão da vulnerabilidade socioambiental. O trabalho demonstra que há um padrão quanto ao surgimento de doenças infecciosas que indica o vínculo delas com a pressão das mudanças climáticas e ambientais sobre o meio, especialmente em regiões mais vulneráveis da Ásia e da África. Sugeriu-se, nesse contexto, medidas de adaptação ao clima para diminuir a pressão sobre os recursos naturais, atenuar os riscos ambientais e, consequentemente, os impactos econômicos, sociais e à saúde. Dessa forma, esse trabalho contribui ao campo de pesquisa de saúde e mudanças climáticas, ao pontuar os fatores ambientais, climáticos e, até mesmo, sociais, relacionados ao surgimento de algumas das doenças que foram, ou são, epidêmicas ou pandêmicas, e, a partir dos quais, é possível desenvolver medidas de mitigação e adaptação a serem implementadas em contexto local, especialmente em regiões mais vulneráveis social e ambientalmente.

Palavras chave:

Mudanças Climáticas; Doenças infecciosas; Vulnerabilidade.

Link:

https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/75500

Ano de publicação: 2021

Purpose

Large parts of the Amazon rainforest grow on weathered soils depleted in phosphorus and rock-derived cations. We tested the hypothesis that in this ecosystem, fine roots stimulate decomposition and nutrient release from leaf litter biochemically by releasing enzymes, and by exuding labile carbon stimulating microbial decomposers.

Methods

We monitored leaf litter decomposition in a Central Amazon tropical rainforest, where fine roots were either present or excluded, over 188 days and added labile carbon substrates (glucose and citric acid) in a fully factorial design. We tracked litter mass loss, remaining carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and cation concentrations, extracellular enzyme activity and microbial carbon and nutrient concentrations.

Results

Fine root presence did not affect litter mass loss but significantly increased the loss of phosphorus and cations from leaf litter. In the presence of fine roots, acid phosphatase activity was 43.2% higher, while neither microbial stoichiometry, nor extracellular enzyme activities targeting carbon- and nitrogen-containing compounds changed. Glucose additions increased phosphorus loss from litter when fine roots were present, and enhanced phosphatase activity in root exclusions. Citric acid additions reduced litter mass loss, microbial biomass nitrogen and phosphorus, regardless of fine root presence or exclusion.

Conclusions

We conclude that plant roots release significant amounts of acid phosphatases into the litter layer and mobilize phosphorus without affecting litter mass loss. Our results further indicate that added labile carbon inputs (i.e. glucose) can stimulate acid phosphatase production by microbial decomposers, highlighting the potential importance of plant-microbial feedbacks in tropical forest ecosystems.

Amazon rainforest, Litter decomposition, Fine roots, Acid phosphatase, Root exudates, Labile carbon. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11104-021-05148-9#Ack1

Ano de publicação: 2021

O modelo de mobilidade focado no automóvel de uso individual triunfou por muitas gerações a partir de fatores econômicos, culturais e políticos que fortaleceram a indústria automobilística. No entanto, esse  movimento se move em direção oposta com as atuais  demandas  sociais  por modais de transporte mais sustentáveis. Este artigo propõe uma análise crítica, a partir de uma perspectiva de transições sociotécnicas, da criação do Projeto de Lei (PL) 300/2017, de autoria do deputado Milton Leite (DEM), que tramita na Câmara Municipal de São Paulo. Denominado o “PL da poluição”, adia em mais dez anos a obrigação de as empresas de ônibus alterarem ou renovarem  seus veículos para uso de combustíveis limpos,contrariando artigos 50 51 da Política Municipal de Mudanças Climáticas, lei 14.933, de junho de 2009. Se virar lei, posterga a  retirada  dos  poluentes  de  ônibus  a  diesel  para  2027,  contrariando  as  metas  de  redução  de emissão  de  gases  do efeito estufa(GEE). O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar de que maneira as reivindicações  da  sociedade  civil influenciaram  a  revisão  deste  projeto  de  lei.  A  fim  de responder essa  questão, foramlevantadasascontrovérsiasemtornodaformulaçãodessaleiapartirdoreferencialdosestudosde  governança  da  Ciência  e  da Tecnologia  (C&T),  que possibilita a compreensão das contendas sociotécnicas na governança dos riscos ambientais. Os resultados  revelam  como  a  polêmica em  torno  deste  tema  gerou  o  reexame  de  aspectos econômicos, tecnológicos e ambientais acerca do transporte público e os desafios na tomada de decisão política que permeiam o risco das mudanças climáticas nos centros urbanos. A Partir da identificação das principais disputas acerca deste caso, os resultados demonstram a necessidade de mais  participação  da  sociedade  civil, a  partir  da  coprodução  (JASANOFF,2006)na governança risco climático,uma representatividade de diferentes atores sociais no processo de tomada de decisão em políticas públicas.

Palavras chave:

risco ambiental, transporte, sistemas sociotecnicos, governança multinível

Link:

https://ojs.brazilianjournals.com.br/ojs/index.php/BRJD/article/view/26924/21294

Ano de publicação: 2021

Worldwide there is accumulated evidence of heatwave intensification due to climate change. Regional differences in the effects of heatwaves require local studies to implement public mitigation and adaptation strategies. This work analyzes and characterizes heatwaves’ occurrence for the city of Campinas, Brazil, through an observational study from 1956 to 2018. The definition of heatwaves adopted requires that the maximum and minimum daily temperatures be above the daily limits derived from climate normal 1961-1990. The annual and seasonal metrics of the number, frequency, and heatwaves’ duration showed significant and positive trends, except in winter. We found that the longest, the more intense, and the most frequent events occurred in the last 20 years and that a significant change in trend occurred at the beginning of the 1980s. Lastly, we performed an exploratory study of intra-urban variability, comparing heatwave metrics between two different weather stations that are 30 km apart in the city of Campinas. We found similar metrics patterns for the two weather stations, with more prolonged and more frequent heatwave events for the region's station with a higher rate of urban land occupation.

heatwave; climate change; climatology; trend; Brazil

https://www.scielo.br/j/rbmet/a/xFMpHYzrjZFJwFMDkfjD5tG/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2021

Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

CMIP5, COP21, General circulation models, Paris agreement.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7322

Ano de publicação: 2021

Este trabalho visa analisar a forma como a mídia impressa no estado da Bahia transmite informações climáticas na época da seca. Para tanto, edições de dois jornais diários, referentes ao ano de 2012, foram analisadas. Considerou-se as matérias veiculadas sobre o tema, e os aspectos conceituais relacionados à transmissão da notícia foram avaliados. Os resultados sugerem que as mídias analisadas disseminaram as informações climáticas de maneira sensacionalista, além de apresentar erros conceituais. Concluiu-se que a mídia analisada, que poderia ser o veículo por meio do qual a população pudesse desconstruir a concepção de um ambiente hostil normalmente vinculado ao semiárido, propaga informações que corroboram para manter uma visão pejorativa da região.

Palavras chave:

INFORMAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS DIFUNDIDAS PELA MÍDIA.

Link:

https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/75894

Ano de publicação: 2021

Questões socioambientais ligadas às mudanças climáticas ainda são pouco trabalhadas e estudadas na Educação Básica, sobretudo na etapa do Ensino Médio. Profundamente relacionadas aos problemas urbanos que atingem as comunidades, são as populações mais vulneráveis aquelas que estão mais propensas a serem impactadas com suas consequências. Partindo do entendimento de que todos têm direito a um meio ambiente equilibrado para a sua sobrevivência, este estudo tem como objetivo apresentar uma sequência didática para o ensino da temática socioambiental dentro do tema “Mudanças Climáticas” em consonância com a Base Nacional Comum Curricular (BNCC). A sequência didática foi elaborada com base na Aprendizagem Baseada em Projetos (ABP) e seu desenvolvimento pretende promover uma atuação protagonista dos estudantes, fundamentada em temas da atualidade, o que fomentará o desenvolvimento do pensamento crítico para a compreensão de uma realidade complexa, auxiliando a inserção do tema mudanças climáticas na etapa do Ensino Médio. 

Mudanças climáticas, Educação, Ensino, Geociências, Aprendizagem baseada em projetos.

https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/td/article/view/8667126

Ano de publicação: 2021

Deteriorating climatic conditions in urban centers of Brazil is a real concern for human security and urban livelihood sustainability.  The city of Campinas in São Paulo state/Brazil is highly vulnerable to climatic disasters. The present paper analyses the relationship between land use changes and temperature in Campinas between 1989 and 2016. The 28-year period was chosen due to the variability of climatic data in three meteorological stations (University of Campinas, Agronomic Institute of Campinas and International Airport of Viracopos). Data from five sources were used for land use land changes (LULC), and land surface temperature (LST) analysis. The data sources were: i) Landsat 5 Thermometer Mapper (TM), ii) Landsat 5 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), iii) Thermal Infrared Sensor (ETM +) sensors from Landsat 5, iv) Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and v) Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS). The results indicate consistent relations between urbanized increase area and the elevation of air and surface temperature in Campinas. In the studied period, there was an increase of 23% in urbanized areas in Campinas and around the meteorological stations. Cepagri presented the highest growth, about 22%, as well as the station with the highest air temperature.

Palavras chave:

Urban Climate, Remote Sensing, Land Use, Surface Temperature

Link:

https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/73611

Ano de publicação: 2021

Sincronizando impactos sócio climáticos em análises espaço-temporais de vulnerabilidade à seca: desafios e perspectivas para a produção de dados. Os registros de ocorrência de eventos climáticos e meteorológicos extremos vêm aumentando nos últimos anos. As mudanças do clima têm contribuído para esse aumento e os modelos projetam uma muito provável intensificação da frequência e magnitude desses eventos. O Brasil abriga uma das regiões semiáridas mais populosas do planeta, que historicamente convive com períodos de seca. À reboque disso, são notáveis os esforços de pesquisa focados  na  análise  de  riscos  de  seca  e  ameaças  de  escassez  hídrica,  bem  como,  na  evidenciação  de  fatores  de vulnerabilidade  frente  a  eventos  adversos  relacionados  com  as  mudanças  climáticas.    Entretanto,  a  coleta  de dados  sociais,  econômicos  e  demográficos  fica  à  mercê  de  levantamentos  censitários  que,  por  vezes,  não  são capazes de expressar a heterogeneidade espaço-temporal e multinível da vulnerabilidade, bem como, a velocidade com que acontecem transições sociais, políticas e culturais influenciadas por eventos extremos cada vez mais frequentes e intensos. Esse artigo busca discutir os desafios para a produção de dados, sobretudo aqueles envoltos à dimensão humana dos riscos e vulnerabilidades à seca, e trazer perspectivas de técnicas emergentes para produção e coleta de dados que busquem eficiência prática, econômica e científica.

Palavras chave:

Metodologia, Ferramentas digitais, Ciência cidadã, Pesquisa participante.

Link:

https://periodicos.fclar.unesp.br/redd/article/view/15794/12744

Ano de publicação: 2021

Observational data from long-term monitoring plots show that the carbon sink of remaining, undisturbed African and Amazonian tropical rainforest is declining. A study now finds that simulations from Earth system models cannot reproduce this decline.

Biogeochemistry, Ecology, Tropical ecology

Link:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01135-1

Ano de publicação: 2021

Worldwide cities are at the forefront of tackling climate change; however, it is not clear to what extent they are prepared for the challenge, particularly in the context of lower income countries, where the need for action is urgent. In this context, many of cities struggle to develop evidence-based approaches to assess their current and future capacity to deal with climate impacts and inform the design of policies to respond in the short/long term. Based both on extensive field research carried out in Brazilian cities and on urban adaptation literature, we develop and test the Urban Adaptation Index (UAI) that cities can use to assess their current adaptive capacity in a realistic/achievable way. The index includes 26 indicators and focuses on a set of public policies to support interventions connected to adaptation: housing, urban mobility, sustainable agriculture, environmental management, and climate impact response. To make the UAI more usable/accessible, we use empirical data that is publicly available, and develop an approach that can be implemented with resources already available in many Brazilian cities. We illustrate the UAI usability by applying the index to the 645 municipalities of the state of São Paulo. Results show that more than half of the municipalities present low UAI ratings; however, municipalities located in metropolitan regions, where the majority of the population live, tend to have higher ratings. Practitioners agreed on the value of the UAI as a tool to monitor the current situation and changes regarding local potential capacity to adapt to climate change

Palavras chave:

Climate change adaptation, public policies,  Sustainability, Index, Adaptive capacity

Link:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03113-0

Ano de publicação: 2020

This study used spectral data integrated with the agrometeorological model by Doorenbos and Kassam to estimate soybean grain productivity in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. In the developed model, spectral data were used instead of meteorological data and biophysical parameters of the crop. For this purpose, the products of real and potential evapotranspiration (MOD16), normalized difference vegetation index – NDVI (MOD13Q1), and leaf area index (MOD15A2H) from the MODIS satellite were used, in addition to sunstroke data obtained by using the visible channel from the satellite GOES IMAGER. The results obtained showed that, with the proposed methodology, it was possible to follow the development of soybean cultivation throughout the cycle and to estimate production and productivity in the study area. Willmott's agreement index was 0.99 and 0.96 and Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.99 and 0.84 for production and productivity, respectively.

Geographic Information System, Mathematical Modeling, Remote Sensing, Agrometeorology, Crop Monitoring.

https://www.scielo.br/j/eagri/a/N6PjNtXy3pqcv6zHdS6bQjC/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2020

O uso inapropriado dos recursos naturais resultou-se em algumas mudanças no conjunto dos elementos que compõem os ecossistemas e torna a população vulnerável a cenários tais como incêndios florestais, secas, furacões, tempestades tropicais, nevascas, enchentes e outros. No Haiti, historicamente, o país enfrenta problemas climáticos devido sua situação geográfica e o uso e ocupação inadequado do solo. Estes fatores podem contribuir para aumentar a sensibilidade local em relação a ocorrências de fenômenos naturais como terremoto, furacão, secas e enchentes. Desta maneira, esta pesquisa objetivou analisar a vulnerabilidade da republica do Haiti frente à eventos climáticos naturais durante os últimos décadas. Os resultados mais relevantes indicam que os anos de 2014 e 2015 foram marcados por uma longa seca que afetou quase todo o país, danificou severamente os meios de subsistência e a segurança alimentar do país.

 Climatologia, Riscos ambientais, Fragilidade, Haiti.

https://periodicos.ufjf.br/index.php/geografia/article/view/29424

Ano de publicação: 2020

Em 24 de março de 2020, foi decretado confinamento parcial no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, como medida para desacelerar a disseminação da COVID-19. O decreto consistia na proibição de aglomerações e na recomendação para as pessoas permanecerem em casa, exceto em situações urgentes ou de extrema necessidade. Na esteira de estudos realizados em outros países, o artigo busca avaliar os impactos do confinamento na qualidade do ar em cinco cidades no Estado de São Paulo. Nosso estudo foi realizado com o material particulado e dióxido de nitrogênio enquanto indicadores da qualidade do ar e pela correlação das concentrações dos contaminantes com dados meteorológicos. Os resultados mostraram um aumento desses contaminantes em todas as cinco cidades dentro das primeiras semanas depois do confinamento, comparado às semanas que antecederam o decreto e com o mesmo período em anos anteriores. O resultado é inconsistente com os achados usualmente relatados em outros estudos. Portanto, foi definido um objetivo secundário a fim de investigar a possível causa (ou causas) da piora na qualidade do ar, o que revelou um aumento no número de incêndios. O tempo anormalmente seco favoreceu a queima de vegetação nas áreas agrícolas rurais e em pequenas áreas de vegetação próximas às cidades, além do limitado escoamento da poluição pela chuva, o que contribuiu à maior concentração de poluentes. Os achados sugerem hipóteses sobre os possíveis efeitos dessa situação de pior qualidade do ar sobre o agravamento de casos de COVID-19, porém são necessários mais estudos para uma avaliação completa.

Poluição do Ar, Material Particulado, Dióxido de Nitrogênio, COVID-19, Incêndios Florestais.

https://www.scielosp.org/article/csp/2021.v37n9/e00242320/en/

Ano de publicação: 2020

No estado da Bahia, onde a maior parte do território encontra-se no semiárido, a seca desencadeia impactos em diversos setores da sociedade, com grandes repercussões na agricultura. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar indicadores sociais e agrícolas que identifiquem a vulnerabilidade do agricultor do semiárido baiano à seca. Para tanto, escolheu-se quatro parâmetros, sendo eles: índice de manejo agrícola; índice ambiental, índice FIRJAN de Desenvolvimento Municipal (IFDM), e dados agrícolas. O presente trabalho concluiu que, ao lado das condições meteorológicas desfavoráveis, os fatores relacionados à falta de políticas públicas e a estrutura fundiária são extremamente importantes para se compreender os problemas regionais e a seca no semiárido brasileiro. Este fato demonstra que a vulnerabilidade do semiárido está para além das condições meteorológicas locais.

Estiagem, Manejo Agrícola, Sensibilidade

https://seer.ufu.br/index.php/caminhosdegeografia/article/view/52133

Ano de publicação: 2020

Conceitos de Geociências estão no cotidiano das pessoas; temas dessa área, como a Climatologia, vêm sendo apresentados rotineiramente a alunos do Ensino Médio. No entanto, grande parte dos conceitos climatológicos são abstratos para a maioria das pessoas, exigindo maior habilidade do professor para discuti-los. Nesse contexto, e com o intuito de abordar questões climatológicas de forma interativa, esta pesquisa teve como objetivo desenvolver um material didático baseado em um jogo de tabuleiro, para ser utilizado como ferramenta pedagógica para promover a aprendizagem de conceitos de Geociências, enfatizando a Climatologia. O jogo foi desenvolvido a partir da Base Nacional Comum Curricular e de temas indicados pela UNESCO para ensino de Mudanças Climáticas, além de questões das Geociências da América do Sul. Com a aplicação do material, espera-se que os alunos consigam debater de forma crítica os principais temas de Geociências, Climatologia e Geografia. 

Jogos, Mudança Climática, Educação

https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/td/article/view/8656203

Ano de publicação: 2020

A ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim está diretamente relacionada aos elementos climáticos. Desta maneira, mapas de distribuição geográfica e temporal baseados em dados do clima contribuem com informações sobre o comportamento de patossistemas frente às mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a evolução da favorabilidade climática à ocorrência da mancha preta para as principais regiões produtoras de amendoim da Argentina e do Brasil em função das mudanças climáticas. Na elaboração dos mapas foram considerados os meses de janeiro a março e empregada a metodologia de análise integrada das projeções climáticas e do problema fitossanitário com suporte do geoprocessamento. Foram considerados o clima normal (1961-1990) e o clima futuro (201-2040, 2041-270 e 2071-2100). Considerando as particularidades da doença nas áreas produtoras de cada país, diferentes regras em critérios de lógica matemática de SIG foram aplicadas para a Argentina e o Brasil, pois elas incorporam efeitos diversos da interação das características próprias do patógeno virulento, hospedeiro suscetível e características ambientais. Os cenários climáticos futuros apontam para o aumento da favorabilidade para a ocorrência da mancha preta do amendoim para as principais regiões produtoras da Argentina e do Brasil.

Arachis hypogea L., Cercosporidium personatum, doença de planta, geoprocessamento. 

https://periodicos.ufpe.br/revistas/rbgfe/article/view/242557

Ano de publicação: 2020

A common assumption in tropical ecology is that root systems respond rapidly to climatic cues but that most of that response is limited to the uppermost layer of the soil, with relatively limited changes in deeper layers. However, this assumption has not been tested directly, preventing models from accurately predicting the response of tropical forests to environmental change.We measured seasonal dynamics of fine roots in an upper-slope plateau in Central Amazonia mature forest using minirhizotrons to 90 cm depth, which were calibrated with fine roots extracted from soil cores.Root productivity and mortality in surface soil layers were positively correlated with precipitation, whereas root standing length was greater during the dry periods at the deeper layers. Contrary to historical assumptions, a large fraction of fine-root standing biomass (46%) and productivity (41%) was found in soil layers deeper than 30 cm. Furthermore, root turnover decreased linearly with soil depth.Our findings demonstrate a relationship between fine-root dynamics and precipitation regimes in Central Amazonia. Our results also emphasize the importance of deeper roots for accurate estimates of primary productivity and the interaction between roots and carbon, water, and nutrients.

Belowground productivity, Fine-root dynamics, Minirhizotrons, Precipitation, Root turnover, Rooting depth, Terra firme, Tropical forest 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pei3.10010

Ano de publicação: 2020

O estudo da Climatologia é de fundamental relevância, uma vez que o clima e suas variações interferem no ritmo de diferentes atividades na sociedade e na segurança do próprio homem. Na Educação Básica, o seu estudo está inserido, sobretudo, nas aulas de Geografia. No entanto, nos últimos anos, pesquisas acadêmicas vêm se preocupando com a abordagem da Climatologia nos livros didáticos de Geografia, em razão de erros conceituais, superficialidade no conteúdo apresentado e falta de conexão entre eles. Assim, o presente estudo objetivou avaliar os conteúdos da temática clima nos livros de Geografia que compõe a coleção “Expedições Geográficas”. A partir das análises, propôs-se abordagens mais adequadas e novas interpretações para que o conteúdo possa ser melhor trabalhado pelo aluno, auxiliando o professor em sala de aula. O método consistiu em: (i) escolha do livro didático, (ii) caracterização geral e revisão crítica, (iii) levantamento dos conteúdos relacionados à Climatologia a partir de uma análise quantitativa alinhando-se a Climatologia Geográfica e aos objetivos da Geografia Escolar, (iv) análise qualitativa, além de proposição de alternativas para aprimoramento dos conteúdos e maior interação do clima com os componentes do espaço geográfico. Os resultados demonstraram que os assuntos de natureza climática são abordados de maneira demasiadamente resumida, carecendo de uma melhor conexão com a climatologia geográfica. 

 

Geografia Escolar, Livro Didático, Ensino-Aprendizagem. 

https://revistas.ufpr.br/revistaabclima/article/view/74829#:~:text=O%20estudo%20da%20Climatologia%20%C3%A9,sobretudo%2C%20nas%20aulas%20de%20Geografia

Ano de publicação: 2020

Desmatamento, degradação, uso irracional e mudanças climáticas vêm ameaçando a resiliência e a própria existência da floresta amazônica. Nesse contexto tem se debatido alternativas mais racionais para o futuro da maior floresta tropical do mundo, como por exemplo uma bioeconomia de alta tecnologia baseada na biodiversidade e recursos genéticos da floresta. Neste ensaio argumento que embora este tipo de alternativa deva ser explorada, a sobrevivência da Amazônia só estará garantida quando os corações e mentes da nossa sociedade forem conquistados em relação à floresta. O Brasil é sem dúvida o país-floresta, mas seu povo não se vê como povo-floresta. Nós cientistas, divulgadores de ciência, jornalistas, artistas e formadores de opinião temos um papel central a desempenhar no efetivo envolvimento das pessoas no processo de se fazer ciência e arte sobre/para/na floresta amazônica. Apresento um exemplo disso com a exposição “Amazônia e mudanças climáticas: um futuro em fotos, ilustrações e ciência”, do programa de pesquisas AmazonFACE, que percorreu algumas cidades no Brasil e exterior entre 2017 e 2019. Esse longo porém essencial trabalho cultural e educacional sobre a floresta pode ser feito de muitas formas (fotos, filmes, música, exibições, pinturas, medicina, intervenções urbanas) e deve mirar na refundação das relações da nossa sociedade com a sua maior Floresta.

Educação. Cultura. Floresta tropical.

http://climacom.mudancasclimaticas.net.br/david-lapola-florestas/

Ano de publicação: 2020

A mídia cada vez mais tem se encarregado de divulgar informações relacionadas aos fenômenos climáticos e meteorológicos, assim como, também, é crescente o número de pesquisas que buscam investigar a forma como os temas referentes ao clima, ao tempo e ao comportamento deles vem sendo apresentado nas diversas mídias (jornais, revistas, rádio, internet, televisão). Sendo assim, a presente pesquisa buscou analisar as notícias relacionadas ao hidrometeoro (chuva), na região do semiárido baiano, no período de 2012 a 2015, publicadas pelos jornais (Correio da Bahia e A Tarde) de grande circulação no Estado da Bahia. Observou-se que as notícias fazem apologia a expectativa da chuva, e que muitas delas colocam que o sofrimento da população está diretamente conectado ao fenômeno climático. Os adjetivos utilizados pela mídia aos eventos climáticos são pejorativos e favorecem para a construção de um significado equivocado sobre o clima da região. 

Amazônia Bacia, hidrográfica, Caatinga, Cerrado, Clima, Conservação, Erosão, Geoprocessamento, Geosistemas, Geotecnologias, Planejamento Ambiental, Precipitação, Recursos hídricos, SIG, Semiárido, Sensoriamento Remoto, bacia hidrográfica, geoprocessamento, precipitação, recursos hídricos, sensoriamento remoto. 

https://periodicos.ufpe.br/revistas/rbgfe/article/view/239748

Ano de publicação: 2020

Ten-year seasonal climate reforecasts over South America are obtained using the Eta Regional Climate Model at 40 km resolution, driven by the large-scale forcing from the global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies. The objective of this work is to evaluate these regional reforecasts. The dataset is comprised of four-month seasonal forecasts performed on a monthly basis between 2001 and 2010. An ensemble of five members is constructed from five slightly different initial conditions to partially reduce the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts. The seasonal mean precipitation and 2-meter temperature forecasts are compared with the observations. The comparison shows that, in general, forecasted precipitation is underestimated in the central part of the continent in the austral summer, whereas the forecasted 2 meter temperature is underestimated in most parts of the continent and throughout the year. Skill scores show higher skill in the northern part of the continent and lower skill in the southern part of the continent, but mixed skill signs are seen in the central part of the continent. During the El Niño and La Niña seasons, the forecast skill scores clearly increase. The downscaling of the Eta model seasonal forecasts provides added value over the driver global model forecasts, especially during rainy periods.

Seasonal forecasts, Regional Climate Model, Eta model, South America, forecast skill, added value.

https://www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/vS95QNbfvcsmn57F8XnGMbJ/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2019

o presente artigo apresenta a reconstrução histórica dos eventos e documentos que caracterizaram a institucionalização do ambiente em Moçambique, entre 1980 e 2014. Inicialmente, apresenta a metodologia que orientou o artigo e debates teóricos, estabelecendo diálogo entre a História Ambiental da América Latina, abordagens pós-coloniais e Sociologia do Conhecimento. Na sequência, apresenta os eventos que delimitaram a dimensão local dos riscos ambientais, e documentos que marcaram a visão global destes.

História Ambiental. Pós-Colonialidade. Risco Ambiental.

https://periodicos.unb.br/index.php/emtempos/article/view/27089

Ano de publicação: 2019

Acquiring meaningful data to be employed in building training sets for
classification models is a costly task, both in terms of difficult to
find suitable samples as well as their quantity. In this sense, Active
Learning (AL) improves the training set building by providing an
efficient way to select only essential data to be attached to the
training set, consequently reducing its size and even enhancing model's
accuracy, when compared to random sample selection. In this paper, we
proposed a framework for time series classification in order to monitor
sugarcane area in São Paulo, Brazil. The AL approach consisted of
selecting seasonal time series information from less than 1 percent of
each class' pixels to build the training set and evaluate this selection
by an expert user supported by distance measurements, repeating this
process until both distance measurement thresholds were satisfied. In
most years, the classification results presented about 90 percent of
correlation with official estimates based on both traditional and
satellite image analysis methods. This framework can then help Land Use
Change (LUC) monitoring as it produced similar results compared to other
methods that demands more human and financial resources to be adopted.

Environment, pixel classification, remote sensing, time series analysis 

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8701458

Ano de publicação: 2019

Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest
will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to
the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration.
Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely
controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has
not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the
Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the
planned free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an
ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus
availability reduces the projected CO₂-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹
over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen
models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate
change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the
biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is
considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹,
owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies
considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on
the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus
acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent
these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO₂.

Carbon cycle, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate-change ecology, Element cycles, Tropical ecology.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0404-9#Ack1

Ano de publicação: 2019

All over the world, there is a pressing need to better understand how
climate change has been incorporated into governmental agendas, and
evaluate the status of adaptation planning and interventions at the
local level. In this paper, we seek to contribute towards bridging this
gap by identifying local practices connected to climate adaptation in
six large Brazilian cities, and presenting a framework, based on the
existing literature, for assessing constraints to adaptation across the
municipal level. Although local governments are not the only actors who
can take the lead through their actions, the employed framework
considers that effective adaptation planning in urban areas is highly
dependent on municipal efforts. Our findings indicate that six aspects
have the highest levels of impact on adaptation in the Brazilian cities
studied: administrative practices, political will, level of commitment,
mismatch between the scale of urban issues and the extent of local
government authority, pressures from private sectors, and inspection.
Although these barriers are not specific only to climate issues and can
be identified in other environmental arenas, when combined, they cause
and worsen constraints to advancing urban adaptation at the local level.
Specifically concerning the local dynamics of urban planning, the
combination of pressures from private sectors and insufficient
inspection negatively affects the ability of these cities to consolidate
adaptation interventions. Our results are helpful in the context of
large cities, particularly in Global South, where, as in Brazil,
competitive urbanism and specific interest groups confront municipal
efforts, and make achieving adaptation more difficult.

Climate change, Adaptation, Local governments, Cities, Brazil 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-019-01570-z

Ano de publicação: 2019

In this research, we combine data analyses with hotspots method to
identify the spatio-temporal trend of São Paulo’s coffee cultivation
area. Our hypothesis is that coffee cultivation area has been changing
significantly in the study area since 1990. Therefore, the main goal of
this research was to map the spatial pattern of coffee land use change. 
For coffee land use diagnostics, official data of cultivated area,
hotspot analyses and growth rate were used. The results demonstrated
that coffee cultivation area decreased and concentrated in smaller
areas, which are traditionally recognized as “coffee quality regions”.
The producer size analyses evidenced that, not only the localization,
but also the producer profile changes as well. Smallholders increased
but medium and large producers decreased significantly in the studied
period. The coffee abandonment analyses demonstrated that, over the
study period, 51.46% of the coffee area cultivated in the study region
was abandoned.

Land cover changes, hotspots, coffee abandonment         

http://www.coffeescience.ufla.br/index.php/Coffeescience/article/view/1540

Ano de publicação: 2019

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes have increasingly expanded to consider ecosystem services (ESS). In Brazil, the Forest Code permits PES but does not specify the scheme operationalization. The way ESS should be quantified and valued has not yet been implemented country-wide, nor has the funding source for PES. Through interviews with farmers in Rio Claro-SP, Brazil, and in Cairngorms National Park in the highlands and lowlands of Scotland, UK, we compared farmers’ perspectives concerning ESS and PES, focusing on the PES implementation in sugarcane landscape in São Paulo state. While Scottish farmers perceived more cultural services, Brazilian farmers focused on regulating services, which we attribute to socio-political and landscape differences. Despite these differences, farmers in both areas preferred opportunity cost approach for ESS valuation because this method captures efforts to maintain ESS. Thereby, the opportunity cost should be considered for valuation in PES schemes, but conversely, budgetary constraints make it impossible to satisfy farmers with PES in regions of high productivity in the southeast of Brazil. Lessons learned concerning the PES subsidies in Scotland indicates the importance of co-designing schemes with stakeholders, minimizing trade-offs between the environment. Therefore, the participants as ESS providers, beneficiaries and intermediaries in the public policies arena was recognized for co-optimize the trade-offs between costs and effectiveness in PES.

Payment for ecosystem services, 

Public policies, 

Sugarcane production, 

Participatory methods, 

Cairngorms National Park

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041618301748?via%3Dihub#kg005

Ano de publicação: 2019

The precise estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀)
is crucial for the planning and management of water resources and
agricultural production. In this study, the applicability of the
Hargreaves Samani (HS), artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear
regression (MLR) and extreme learning machine (ELM) models were
evaluated to estimate ET₀ based on temperature data from the
Verde Grande River basin, southeastern Brazil. These models were
evaluated in two scenarios: local and pooled. In the local scenario,
training, calibration and validation of the models were performed
separately at each station. In the pooled scenario, meteorological data
from all stations were grouped for training and calibration and then
separately tested at each station. The ET₀ values estimated
by the Penman-Monteith model (FAO-56 PM) were considered the target
data. All the developed models were evaluated by cluster analysis and
the following performance indices: relative root mean square error
(RRMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and Nash-Sutcliffe
coefficient (NS). In both scenarios evaluated, local and pooled, the
results revealed the superiority of the artificial intelligence methods
(ANN and ELM) and the MLR model compared to the original and adjusted HS
models. In the local scenario, the ANN (with r of 0.751, NS of 0.687
and RRMSE of 0.112), ELM (with r of 0.747, NS of 0.672 and RRMSE of
0.116) and MLR (with r of 0.743, NS of 0.665 and RRMSE of 0.068) models
presented the best performance, in addition to being grouped in the same
cluster. Similar to the observations from the local scenario, the ANN
(with r of 0.718, NS of 0.555 and RRMSE of 0.165), ELM (with r of 0.724,
NS of 0.601 and RRMSE of 0.151) and MLR (with r of 0.731, NS of 0.550
and RRMSE of 0.091) models presented the best performance in the pooled
scenario and were grouped in the same cluster. The locally trained
models presented higher precision than the models generated with pooled
data; however, the models generated in the pooled scenario could be used
to estimate ET₀ in cases of unavailability of local
meteorological data. Although the MLR, ANN and ELM models, based on
temperature data, are appropriate alternatives to accurately estimate ET₀
in the Verde Grande River basin, southeastern Brazil, the MLR model
presents the advantage of the use of explicit algebraic equations,
facilitating its application.

Soft computing, Artificial neural networks, Multiple linear regression, Extreme learning machines, Artificial intelligence, Meteorological data

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168169919306787?via%3Dihub#bi005

Ano de publicação: 2019

O objetivo deste trabalho foi simular a distribuição geográfica do período de incubação da ferrugem do cafeeiro Coffea arabica, com uso de dados de dois modelos climáticos regionais, o Eta-HadGEM2-ES e o Eta-MIROC5. O cenário de alta emissão de gases de efeito estufa (RCP 8,5 W m-2) foi utilizado para os estados de Minas Gerais e São Paulo, para os cenários climáticos atual e futuro. O comportamento de seis diferentes equações de regressão do período de incubação (PI), disponíveis na literatura, também foi analisado em função dos dados dos modelos climáticos regionais. Os resultados indicam possibilidade de aumento de área afetada na região estudada, com PI inferior a 19 dias, de 0,5% para Eta-MIROC5 a 14,2% para Eta-HadGEM2-ES. A severidade da ferrugem do cafeeiro em cenários futuros deverá aumentar nos meses mais quentes e úmidos do ano, estendendo-se para os meses mais secos e frios. O potencial de infecção da ferrugem é estimado de forma diferente pelas equações estudadas. Em cenários de temperaturas mais elevadas, a equação de Kushalappa & Martins indica um potencial muito alto de severidade.

Coffea arabica, Hemileia vastatrix, Arabica coffee, plant disease severity, regional climate modelling, spatial analyses.

https://www.scielo.br/j/pab/a/NVvRWdRH7Kh5Z33g7YgKqsB/?lang=en

Ano de publicação: 2019

Brazilian cities host 86% of the country’s population and have been more intensely hit by rising temperatures than the average of cities across the world over the last century. Nevertheless, assessments of the vulnerability of Brazilian urban dwellers to urban heat islands (UHI) are scarce. In this study, we take advantage of the availability of high-resolution data to calculate the heat stress vulnerability and risk indexes (HSVI and HSRI, respectively) for people inhabiting six Brazilian metropolitan areas—Manaus, Natal, Vitória, São Paulo, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre. The indexes are calculated by mathematically relating indicators of exposure (distribution of >65-year-old elderly people), sensitivity/adaptive capacity (human development index, HDI), and hazard (surface temperature). The resulting HSVI maps reflect the socioeconomic (HDI) differences found among the studied cities, with the most vulnerable people located in the poorest neighborhoods in Manaus (0.720) and Natal (0.733), distributed among lower- and mid-class zones in São Paulo (0.794) and Vitória (0.772), or invariably located in the wealthy zones of Curitiba (0.783) and Porto Alegre (0.762). Two distinct patterns are identified for the HSRI: in São Paulo, Vitória, Curitiba, and Porto Alegre, high and very high risks are found in the wealthy zones of the cities, whereas in Natal and Manaus, high and very high risks are encountered in the poorly developed city zones, a result that was strongly driven by the UHI pattern. Better communication of heat stress risk and the improvement of city greenness should be the focus of near-term adaptation strategies for the mapped vulnerable population.

Cities, Adaptation, Vulnerability mapping, Brazil, Urban heat island, Climate change. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02459-w

Ano de publicação: 2019

Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.

Agriculture, 

Environmental science.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844018347698?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2019

Tropical vegetation biomass represents a key component of the carbon stored in global forest ecosystems. Estimates of aboveground biomass commonly rely on measurements of tree size (diameter and height) and then indirectly relate, via allometric relationships and wood density, to biomass sampled from a relatively small number of harvested and weighed trees. Recently, however, novel in situ remote sensing techniques have been proposed, which may provide nondestructive alternative approaches to derive biomass estimates. Nonetheless, we still lack knowledge of the measurement uncertainties, as both the calibration and validation of estimates using different techniques and instruments requires consistent assessment of the underlying errors. To that end, we investigate different approaches estimating the tropical aboveground biomass in situ. We quantify the total and systematic errors among measurements obtained from terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR), hypsometer-based trigonometry, and traditional forest inventory. We show that laser-based estimates of aboveground biomass are in good agreement (<10% measurement uncertainty) with traditional measurements. However, relative uncertainties vary among the allometric equations based on the vegetation parameters used for parameterization. We report the error metrics for measurements of tree diameter and tree height and discuss the consequences for estimated biomass. Despite methodological differences detected in this study, we conclude that laser-based electronic devices could complement conventional measurement techniques, thereby potentially improving estimates of tropical vegetation biomass.

carbon storage; central-eastern Amazonia; forest structure; terra-firme forest; terrestrial laser scanning; light detection and ranging (LiDAR);

https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/5/510#

Ano de publicação: 2018

The operational challenges of integrated ecosystem service (ES) appraisals are determined by study purpose, system complexity and uncertainty, decision-makers’ requirements for reliability and accuracy of methods, and approaches to stakeholder–science interaction in different decision contexts. To explore these factors we defined an information gap hypothesis, based on a theory of cumulative uncertainty in ES appraisals. When decision context requirements for accuracy and reliability increase, and the expected uncertainty of the ES appraisal methods also increases, the likelihood of methods being used is expected to drop, creating a potential information gap in governance. In order to test this information gap hypothesis, we evaluate 26 case studies and 80 ecosystem services appraisals in a large integrated EU research project. We find some support for a decreasing likelihood of ES appraisal methods coinciding with increasing accuracy and reliability requirements of the decision-support context, and with increasing uncertainty. We do not find that information costs are the explanation for this information gap, but rather that the research project interacted mostly with stakeholders outside the most decision-relevant contexts. The paper discusses how alternative definitions of integrated valuation can lead to different interpretations of decision-support information, and different governance approaches to dealing with uncertainty.

Integrated valuation, 

Ecosystem service appraisal, 

Ecosystem service governance, 

Information costs, 

Uncertainty, 

Valuation, 

Eccosystem services cascade

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617300220?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2018

This work presents sensitivity tests of a model for calculation of rocket effluent dispersion, with respect to the source size. The model employs the Generalized Integral Laplace Transform Technique (GILTT) to solve, analytically, the advection – diffusion equation. By employing different virtual sources, the point source was changed into volume sources with previously defined crosswind radius (0, 10, 25 and 50 m), and the impact of such modification was assessed in terms of the vertical distribution of atmospheric contaminants and the concentration fields close to the surface. The tests were conducted for cases of stable and unstable planetary boundary layer. 

Dispersão de poluentes, Foguetes, [en] GILTT,  [en] Pollution dispersion,  [en] Volume source,

 

https://lume.ufrgs.br/handle/10183/187679

Ano de publicação: 2018

The scientific notion that the Amazon forest could be deeply impacted by climate change through large-scale replacement of the rainforest by a drier forest, a savannah or even nonanalogous degraded vegetation will soon be 20 years old (White et al., 1999; Cox et al., 2000). The mere prospect of undermining a significant fraction of the world's largest tropical rainforest due to global climate change – even if deforestation is completely stopped – should be alarming for the nine Amazonian countries, and the world as a whole, given the bundled ecosystem services at stake. This possibility, however, has not caused widespread concern among governments and societies because the lingering scientific uncertainties prevent any well-informed decisions from being made. The most pressing of these uncertainties regarding the resilience of the Amazon forest to ongoing climatic changes and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are as follows:

• the impacts of the future rainfall regime – either drier, wetter or simply more seasonal – on the forest's structure and functioning
• the existence and extent of nutrient – notably phosphorus (P) – limitation on forest productivity
• the existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed CO2 fertilization effect.

Amazon forest, AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment in the Amazon forest), biomass loss, climate change, drought effects, field experimental data, phosphorus, vegetation models.

https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nph.15342

Ano de publicação: 2018

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a utilidade dos dados de precipitação do produto orbital TRMM3B42, do satélite TRMM, na elaboração do zoneamento agrícola da soja, cana-de-açúcar e café arábica, para o estado de São Paulo. O período de análise foi 1998-2012. Dados de precipitação pluviométrica de 195 estações de superfície do Departamento de Águas e Energia Elétrica do estado de São Paulo (DAEE-SP) foram considerados como referência para o trabalho. A série de dados pluviométricos remotos foi gerada substituindo-se os dados de cada um dos 195 postos do DAEESP pelos dados da estação virtual mais próxima. As temperaturas médias mensal e anual, a evapotranspiração potencial decendial média e a probabilidade de geadas foram estimadas com base em modelos de regressão, utilizando as coordenadas geográficas (latitude, longitude e altitude) dos 195 postos pluviométricos do DAEESP. A deficiência hídrica anual e o índice de satisfação das necessidades de água (ISNA) foram calculados com base em modelos de simulação do balanço hídrico. Concluiu-se que os dados do produto orbital TRMM3B42 têm potencial para melhorar a quantidade e a distribuição espacial dos dados pluviométricos necessários para definição do zoneamento agrícola de culturas perenes e semiperenes, como a canade-açúcar e o café arábica. No caso de culturas anuais, como a soja, são necessárias adaptações no método de zoneamento devido ao impacto provocado pela tendência de superestimativa da precipitação pelo sensoriamento remoto.

zoneamento agrícola, sensoriamento remoto, geoprocessamento.

https://www.embrapa.br/busca-de-publicacoes/-/publicacao/1103170/comparacao-do-risco-climatico-da-soja-cana-de-acucar-e-cafe-arabica-para-o-estado-de-sao-paulo-calculado-com-dados-terrestres-e-orbitai

Ano de publicação: 2018

The Ecosystem Services (ES) concept highlights the varied contributions the environment provides to humans and there are a wide range of methods/tools available to assess ES. However, in real-world decision contexts a single tool is rarely sufficient and methods must be combined to meet practitioner needs. Here, results from the OpenNESS project are presented to illustrate the methods selected to meet the needs of 24 real-world case studies and better understand why and how methods are combined to meet practical needs. Results showed that within the cases methods were combined to: i) address a range of ES; ii) assess both supply and demand of ES; iii) assess a range of value types; iv) reach different stakeholder groups v) cover weaknesses in other methods used and vi) to meet specific decision context needs. Methods were linked in a variety of ways: i) as input–output chains of methods; ii) through learning; iii) through method development and iv) through comparison/triangulation of results. The paper synthesises these case study-based experiences to provide insight to others working in practical contexts as to where, and in what contexts, different methods can be combined and how this can add value to case study analyses.

David M. Lapola, Ecosystem Services 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617300190?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2018

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) $957 billion (×109) and $3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian Amazon Product of USD $150 billion per year), arising primarily from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives—e.g., curbing deforestation—are attainable (USD $64 billion), their efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures is also attainable (USD $122 billion) and could bring benefits even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options. 

1. BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, SOCIAL SCIENCES, SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1721770115

Ano de publicação: 2018

Ecosystem service (ES) spatial modelling is a key component of the integrated assessments designed to support policies and management practices aiming at environmental sustainability. ESTIMAP (“Ecosystem Service Mapping Tool”) is a collection of spatially explicit models, originally developed to support policies at a European scale. We based our analysis on 10 case studies, and 3 ES models. Each case study applied at least one model at a local scale. We analyzed the applications with respect to: the adaptation process; the “precision differential” which we define as the variation generated in the model between the degree of spatial variation within the spatial distribution of ES and what the model captures; the stakeholders’ opinions on the usefulness of models. We propose a protocol for adapting ESTIMAP to the local conditions. We present the precision differential as a means of assessing how the type of model and level of model adaptation generate variation among model outputs. We then present the opinion of stakeholders; that in general considered the approach useful for stimulating discussion and supporting communication. Major constraints identified were the lack of spatial data with sufficient level of detail, and the level of expertise needed to set up and compute the models.

David M. Lapola

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041617302358?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2018

The Brazilian sugar-energy sector (SES) is facing an increasing challenge due to the worldwide expansion of biofuel consumption as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making yield improvement and land and water availability key factors in addressing this situation. Consequently, our main aim here is to identify SES vulnerability under climate change conditions, based on the methodology used by the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risks (ZARC) program. We assessed changes of the sugarcane ZARC in light of the current and near-future climatic conditions given by eight general circulation models (GCM) of the 5th IPCC report and under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. We identified a conversion of the current climatic risk levels in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region for sugarcane in future climate change scenarios, but the spatial distribution of these changes is heterogeneous. The current expansion areas located mainly in southern Goiás and northwest of São Paulo are marked by an increase in areas of low water availability in the future, while the traditional production areas, east of São Paulo, do not present this same vulnerability. Sugarcane cultivation in the south of Goiás is already occurring based on a complementary irrigation (of about 50 mm per month from April to September) to reach a yield similar to traditional areas located in São Paulo state. The development of drought-resistant cultivars based on genetic engineering and the efficiency of the irrigation systems used on a large spatial scale and also in the long term are two key points of concern in the Brazilian context of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The challenges for the traditional production regions are related to the production system’s ability to regulate the capacity and idleness of sugarcane mills aiming to avoid current and future competition by same raw material.

Sugar-energy, Brazilian central-southern macro-region, Climatic Change

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4

Ano de publicação: 2017

Brazil is home to the largest tracts of tropical vegetation in the world, harbouring high levels of biodiversity and carbon. Several biomass maps have been produced for Brazil, using different approaches and methods, and for different purposes. These maps have been used to estimate historic, recent, and future carbon emissions from land use change (LUC). It can be difficult to determine which map to use for what purpose. The implications of using an unsuitable map can be significant, since the maps have large differences, both in terms of total carbon storage and its spatial distribution. This paper presents comparisons of Brazil's new ‘official’ carbon map; that is, the map used in the third national communication to the UNFCCC in 2016, with the former official map, and four carbon maps from the scientific literature. General strengths and weaknesses of the different maps are identified, including their suitability for different types of studies. No carbon map was found suitable for studies concerned with existing land use/cover (LULC) and LUC outside of existing forests, partly because they do not represent the current LULC sufficiently well, and partly because they generally overestimate carbon values for agricultural land. A new map of aboveground carbon is presented, which was created based on data from existing maps and an up‐to‐date LULC map. This new map reflects current LULC, has high accuracy and resolution (50 m), and a national coverage. It can be a useful alternative for scientific studies and policy initiatives concerned with existing LULC and LUC outside of existing forests, especially at local scales when high resolution is necessary, and/or outside the Amazon biome. We identify five ongoing climate policy initiatives in Brazil that can benefit from using this map.

Brazil; carbon map; GIS; aboveground biomass; land use policy

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/geo2.45

Ano de publicação: 2017

The intensification of drought incidence is one of the most important threats of the 21st century with significant effects on food security. Accordingly, there is a need to improve the understanding of the regional impacts of climate change on this hazard. This study assessed long-term trends in probability-based drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index) in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Owing to the multi-scalar nature of both indices, the analyses were performed at 1 to 12-month time scales. The indices were calculated by means of a relativist approach that allowed us to compare drought conditions from different periods. The years 1961-1990 were used as the referential period. To the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first time that such relativist approach is used in historical trend analysis. The results suggest that the evapotranspiration rates have intensified the regional drought conditions. The time scale used to calculate the indices significantly affected the outcomes of drought trend assessments. The reason behind this feature is that the significant changes in the monthly regional patterns are limited to a specific period of the year. More specifically, virtually all significant changes have been observed during the first trimester of the rainy season (October, November and December). Considering that this period corresponds to critical plant growth stages (flowering/regrowth/sprouting) of several major crops (e.g. Sugarcane and Citrus), we may conclude that these significant changes have increased the risk of crop yield reductions due to agricultural drought.

intensification of drought; drought Index; agricultural drought; crop yields

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0006-87052018000100201&lng=en&tlng=en

Ano de publicação: 2017

Enhancing the capability of both standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for quantifying wet and dry events under distinct climate conditions is of paramount importance. The different recommendations of recent studies regarding the best distribution to calculate the SPEI and the lack of studies addressing the effect of different parameters estimation methods on the SPI motivated us to apply and adapt distinct testing methodologies to select candidate models for calculating these standardized drought indices (SDI). The study is based on two data sets. The first represents a tropical–subtropical region of Brazil. The second comprises the same weather stations that were used for developing the original version of the SPEI. The study also emphasized the performance of the models within the range of typical SDI values [−2.0 : 2.0]. Along with goodness‐of‐fit tests, we calculated the mean absolute errors between the indices values estimated from the candidate distributions, and their corresponding theoretical values derived from the standard normal distribution. The two‐parameter gamma and the generalized extreme value distributions are, respectively, recommended for general use in SPI and SPEI algorithms (1–12‐month timescales). The unbiased probability weighted moments are recommended to estimate the distributions parameters. The study also described a trade‐off between choosing the best model for the central part and for the tails of the distributions. This trade‐off suggests that the methodologies used to select models for the SDI algorithms may have to decide which part of the distribution (central or tails) should be emphasized. The behaviour of the errors among different wet/dry categories showed that both indices were only capable of representing drought and floods in a similar probabilistic way within the range [−2.0 : 2.0]. This feature supports our decision to emphasize model performances within such range.

drought; standardized precipitation index; standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; trade-off; param-eter estimation

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.5381

Ano de publicação: 2016

The impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) and alterations in nutrient availability on the carbon (C) storage capacity and resilience of the Amazon forest remain highly uncertain. Carbon dynamics are controlled by multiple eco-physiological processes responding to environmental change, but we lack solid experimental evidence, hampering theory development and thus representation in ecosystem models. Here, we present two ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, to be carried out in the Amazon, that examine tropical ecosystem responses to eCO2 and alterations in nutrient availability and thus will elucidate the representation of crucial ecological processes by ecosystem models. We highlight current gaps in our understanding of tropical ecosystem responses to projected global changes in light of the eco-physiological assumptions considered by current ecosystem models. We conclude that a more detailed process-based representation of the spatial (e.g., soil type; plant functional type) and temporal (seasonal and inter-annual) variability of tropical forests is needed to enhance model predictions of ecosystem responses to projected global environmental change.

Amazon, carbon allocation, elevated CO2, free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE), nutrient addition, tropical forest

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2016.00019/full

Ano de publicação: 2016

The first generation of forest free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space. These new experiments are: EucFACE in a mature Eucalyptus stand on highly weathered soil in subtropical Australia; AmazonFACE in a highly diverse, primary rainforest in Brazil; BIFoR‐FACE in a 150‐yr‐old deciduous woodland stand in central England; and SwedFACE proposed in a hemiboreal, Pinus sylvestris stand in Sweden. We now have a unique opportunity to initiate a model–data interaction as an integral part of experimental design and to address a set of cross‐site science questions on topics including responses of mature forests; interactions with temperature, water stress, and phosphorus limitation; and the influence of biodiversity.

biodiversity; climate; elevated CO2;  forest; free‐air CO2 enrichment(FACE); model–data synthesis; nitrogen (N); phosphorus (P)

https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/nph.13593

Ano de publicação: 2016

In this paper the initial draft design of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme in a municipality within the sugarcane belt of São Paulo state, Brazil (PES-RC), is compared with prevailing characteristics of successful PES cases in Latin America (PES-LA). This systematic comparison is performed by analyzing four major characteristics of PES: identity of traded ecosystem service (ES); spatial scale; type of transaction involved between ES providers and beneficiaries; and the involved actors. Information on the biophysical characteristics, institutional arrangement and financial options of PES-RC were assessed using participatory methods. We found that on the one hand there is an agreement between our case study and the prevailing successful cases of PES-LA regarding the traded ES (water) and the PES spatial scale (local). However, stakeholder opinions diverge from the success cases when it comes to the type of transaction (cash preferred in PES-RC; in-kind in successful PES-LA) and the involved actors. Our results raise the question whether stakeholder opinions or the characteristics of successful (or failure) cases should be prioritized when planning and operationalizing new PES schemes. We argue that stakeholder participation should be considered as an additional success criterion for the construction of public policies directed towards PES implementation.

Atlantic ForestBrazilian Forest CodeNature conservationPublic policiesRio Claro - SP municipalityParticipatory methods

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041616301176?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2016

This paper updates the SCVI (Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index) maps developed by Torres et al. (2012) for Brazil, by using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections and more recent 2010 social indicators data. The updated maps differ significantly from their earlier versions in two main ways. First, they show that heavily populated metropolitan areas – namely Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Salvador, Manaus, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo – and a large swath of land across the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Bahia now have the highest SCVI values, that is, their populations are the most vulnerable to climate change in the country. Second, SCVI values for Northeast Brazil are considerably lower compared to the previous index version. An analysis of the causes of such difference reveals that changes in climate projections between CMIP3 and CMIP5 are responsible for most of the change between the different SCVI values and spatial distribution, while changes in social indicators have less influence, despite recent countrywide improvements in social indicators as a result of aggressive anti-poverty programs. These results raise the hypothesis that social reform alone may not be enough to decrease people’s vulnerability to future climatic changes. Whereas the coarse spatial resolution and relatively simplistic formulation of the SCVI may limit how useful these maps are at informing decision-making at the local level, they can provide a valuable input for large-scale policies on climate change adaptation such as those of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change Adaptation.

Adaptive Capacity Social Indicator Climate Change Adaptation Climate Projection Social Vulnerability 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1635-z

Ano de publicação: 2015

In this paper, soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and stocks were investigated in agricultural and natural areas in 17 plot-level paired sites and in a regional survey encompassing more than 100 pasture soils In the paired sites, elemental soil concentrations and stocks were determined in native vegetation (forests and savannas), pastures and crop–livestock systems (CPSs). Nutrient stocks were calculated for the soil depth intervals 0–10, 0–30, and 0–60 cm for the paired sites and 0–10, and 0–30 cm for the pasture regional survey by sum stocks obtained in each sampling intervals (0–5, 5–10, 10–20, 20–30, 30–40, 40–60 cm). Overall, there were significant differences in soil element concentrations and ratios between different land uses, especially in the surface soil layers.

soil carbon; nitrogen; phosphorus

https://www.biogeosciences.net/12/4765/2015/bg-12-4765-2015.pdf

Ano de publicação: 2015

Leaf area index (LAI) and above ground biomass (AGB) are two parameters that are difficult to measure but very useful. In this paper we investigated the relationship between coffee biophysical properties and LAI and AGB in two coffee production systems: full sun (FS) and shaded with macadamia nuts (SH). The paper proposes an empirical relationship for calculating coffee AGB and coffee LAI which avoids destructive methods, using simple field measurements and agrometeorological data. Here, we reported that LAI is related to canopy structure but subject to strong seasonal variations, which can be identified using water requirements satisfaction index (WRSI). Coffee LAI answers to the decreased WRSI with 1 month lag (WRSI-1) and LAI values decreases more for FS systems than for SH systems during dry periods. The best empirical model to predict LAI for FS coffee production system was based on canopy height (ch) and WRSI-1 value. For SH systems, the best model used ch, WRSI-1 and the height of the first pair of branches. Coffee AGB values were measured using destructive analyses and an empirical equation was developed. Both coffee production systems stocked carbon, whereas the SH system stocked an increased carbon amount provided by the macadamia trees that contributed with 15 % of the total carbon above ground. Both systems can be considered mitigation techniques since they are able to remove atmospheric carbon and stock it in the biomass, which has been largely proposed as a compensation mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions.

Carbon stock; Coffee shaded system; Empirical equations; Seasonal LAI variation 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10457-015-9799-5

Ano de publicação: 2014

The aim of this study was to model, based on the overall distribution of extreme values, the probability of occurrence of a particular level of annual maximum daily rainfall in three Brazilian regions (Midwest, Southeast and South) and study their behavior over the past 71 years. The parameters of the general distribution of extreme values were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The Mann–Kendall test showed that there is a positive trend in the annual maximum daily rainfall data series. The non-stationarity was rejected by the augmented Dickey–Fuller test supporting the use of the density function of extreme value distribution to describe the values of the occurrence of annual maximum daily rainfall. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov/Lilliefors goodness-of-fit test showed the good fit of the studied variable to the probability distribution function. The Midwest region has a return period of more frequent annual maximum daily rainfall below 300 mm in comparison with other regions. There is a clear change in the behavior of this extreme event in the Southern region. According to the literature, in past decades annual maximum daily rainfall of 248 mm has been estimated for a return period of 100 years for the state of Santa Catarina-South region, while the results found with the current series, annual maximum daily rainfall of 250 mm was estimated for a return period of 10 years. Extreme annual maximum daily rainfalls for return periods smaller were also found in other regions.

Climate changeClimate periodRainfall variability

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000802?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2014

This case-study article presents the results from a morphology analysis of a knowledge and information network, focusing on the coordination mechanisms employed to generate a convergent arrangement. Agritempo was the first information system to offer (in 2003) free access to a broad range of agrometeorological data comprising all the Brazilian territory, representing an important technological innovation to the agricultural sector. To study this phenomenon an analytical framework of the Techno-Economic Network (TEN) and concepts from the Innovation Sociology field was employed. Results indicate that the durability of this arrangement - from 2003 to 2014 - can be explained by the effectiveness of the coordination strategies established in the network such as: trust based relationships; institutional and individual leadership actions; contracting; software applications and shared common working procedures.

techno-economics networks; innovation; agrometeorology; information and communication technology.

https://scielo.conicyt.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-27242014000100010&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en

Ano de publicação: 2014

Given a large image set, in which very few images have labels, how to guess labels for the remaining majority? How to spot images that need brand new labels different from the predefined ones? How to summarize these data to route the user’s attention to what really matters? Here we answer all these questions. Specifically, we propose QuMinS, a fast, scalable solution to two problems: (i) Low-labor labeling (LLL) – given an image set, very few images have labels, find the most appropriate labels for the rest; and (ii) Mining and attention routing – in the same setting, find clusters, the top- outlier images, and the  images that best represent the data. Experiments on satellite images spanning up to 2.25 GB show that, contrasting to the state-of-the-art labeling techniques, QuMinS scales linearly on the data size, being up to 40 times faster than top competitors (GCap), still achieving better or equal accuracy, it spots images that potentially require unpredicted labels, and it works even with tiny initial label sets, i.e., nearly five examples. We also report a case study of our method’s practical usage to show that QuMinS is a viable tool for automatic coffee crop detection from remote sensing images.

Low-labor labelingSummarizationOutlier detectionQuery by exampleClusteringSatellite imagery

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020025513008001?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2013

In this paper, we present a novel unsupervised algorithm, called CLimate and rEmote sensing Association patteRns Miner, for mining association patterns on heterogeneous time series from climate and remote sensing data integrated in a remote sensing information system developed to improve the monitoring of sugar cane fields. The system, called RemoteAgri, consists of a large database of climate data and low-resolution remote sensing images, an image preprocessing module, a time series extraction module, and time series mining methods. The preprocessing module was projected to perform accurate geometric correction, what is a requirement particularly for land and agriculture applications of satellite images. The time series extraction is accomplished through a graphical interface that allows easy interaction and high flexibility to users. The time series mining method transforms series to symbolic representation in order to identify patterns in a multitemporal satellite images and associate them with patterns in other series within a temporal sliding window. The validation process was achieved with agroclimatic data and NOAA-AVHRR images of sugar cane fields. Results show a correlation between agroclimatic time series and vegetation index images. Rules generated by our new algorithm show the association patterns in different periods of time in each time series, pointing to a time delay between the occurrences of patterns in the series analyzed, corroborating what specialists usually forecast without having the burden of dealing with many data charts

Time series analysis, Data mining, Remote sensing, Meteorology, Indexes, Satellites, Agriculture

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6215038/

Ano de publicação: 2013

In this paper we calculated soil carbon stocks in Brazil studying 17 paired sites where soil stocks were determined in native vegetation, pastures and crop-livestock systems (CPS), and in other regional samplings encompassing more than 100 pasture soils, from 6.58 to 31.53° S, involving three major Brazilian biomes: Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, and the Pampa. The average native vegetation soil carbon stocks at 10, 30 and 60 cm soil depth were equal to approximately 29, 64, and 92 Mg ha−1, respectively. In the paired sites, carbon losses of 7.5 Mg ha−1 and 11.6 Mg ha−1 in CPS systems were observed at 10 cm and 30 cm soil depths, respectively. In pasture soils, carbon losses were similar and equal to 7.5 Mg ha−1 and 11.0 Mg ha−1 at 10 cm and 30 cm soil depths, respectively. Differences at 60 cm soil depth were not significantly different between land uses. The average soil δ13C under native vegetation at 10 and 30 cm depth were equal to −25.4‰ and −24.0‰, increasing to −19.6‰ and −17.7‰ in CPS, and to −18.9‰, and −18.3‰ in pasture soils, respectively; indicating an increasing contribution of C4 carbon in these agrosystems. In the regional survey of pasture soils, the soil carbon stock at 30 cm was equal to approximately 51 Mg ha−1, with an average δ13C value of −19.67‰. Key controllers of soil carbon stock in pasture sites were sand content and mean annual temperature. Collectively, both could explain approximately half of the variance of soil carbon stocks. When pasture soil carbon stocks were compared with the average soil carbon stocks of native vegetation estimated for Brazilian biomes and soil types by Bernoux et al. (2002) there was a carbon gain of 6.7 Mg ha−1, which is equivalent to a carbon gain of 15% compared to the carbon soil stock of the native vegetation. The findings of this study are consistent with differences found between regional comparisons like our pasture sites and plot-level paired study sites in estimating soil carbon stocks changes due to land use changes.

carbon stocks

https://www.biogeosciences.net/10/6141/2013/

Ano de publicação: 2013

Coffee is one of the most important crops in Brazil. Monitoring the crop is necessary to understand future production and a sound understanding of coffee's biophysical properties improves such monitoring. Biophysical properties such as dry biomass can be estimated using remote sensing, including the new generation of high-resolution images (GeoEye-1, for instance). In this study we aim to investigate the relationship between vegetation indices (VI) of high-resolution images (GeoEye-1) and coffee biophysical properties, including dry biomass and carbon. The study also aims at establishing an empirical relationship between remote sensing data (vegetation indices), simple field measurements and dry biomass, allowing calculation of coffee biomass and carbon without resorting to destructive methods. Individual GeoEye-1 satellite's bands (NIR, RED and GREEN) showed significant correlation with biomass, but the best correlation occurred with vegetation index. There is a strong correlation between NDVI, RVI, GNDVI and dry biomass, allowing the estimation of coffee crops' carbon stock. RVI had correlation with plant area index (PAI). The empirical correlation was established and the forecast equation of coffee biomass was created.

Correlation, Biomass, Vegetation mapping, Carbon, Indexes, Remote sensing, Agriculture

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6520004/

Ano de publicação: 2013

The aim of this study was to model the occurrence of extreme dry spells in the Midwest, Southeast and Southern regions of Brazil and estimate the return period of the phenomenon indicating the time when the occurrence is more severe. The generalized extreme value distribution was the best fit for a series of maximum dry spell number and the parameters estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The data series adherence to the probability distribution was verified by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and the percentile–percentile charts. The positive trend of dry spells was verified by the Mann–Kendall test and non-stationarity rejected by Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. The irregular distribution of rainfall in the growing season for the Midwest region has increased the number of dry spells. The increase of rainy days in the Southeast and the South resulted in a decrease of dry spells in these regions. Regarding the return period of one year, dry spells occurred from 5 to 25 days in the Midwest region meaning a loss of productivity for Brazilian agriculture if it happened between the flowering and grain filling phases, making it, therefore the region with the largest agricultural risk. When the intensity of the dry spells was analyzed for different return periods, the Southern region was the most vulnerable.

Dry spellsGeneralized extreme value distributionNumber of rainy daysReturn period

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951300118X?via%3Dihub

Ano de publicação: 2013

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Gossypium hirsutum, evapotranspiration, global warming

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2013000100001&lng=en&tlng=en

Ano de publicação: 2012

Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international marketplaces. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

Sugarcane

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01431161.2011.638334

Ano de publicação: 2011

O Brasil, o maior produtor mundial de cana-de-açúcar, é responsável por 35% da produção mundial. A produção de cana-de-açúcar se concentra nas regiões Centro-Sul e Nordeste e ocupa cerca de 8 milhões de hectares. A cana-de-açúcar, por apresentar um ciclo semi-perene, é influenciada pela variação das condições meteorológicas durante um ano inteiro. O objetivo do trabalho foi analisar os dados climáticos obtidos pelo modelo Eta (2011 a 2090) e os dados do clima atual (1991 a 2010) verificando suas implicações em relação a expansão da cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo. Foram utilizados dados de precipitação e temperatura média, de 1991 a 2010, de estações meteorológicas de seis municípios de São Paulo. Para representar o cenário futuro (2011 a 2090), foram utilizados dados de precipitação e temperatura média obtidos pelo modelo Eta. A partir do balanço hídrico foi possível calcular a deficiência hídrica e o excedente hídrico para os municípios selecionados com armazenamento de água disponível no solo de 100mm. O balanço hídrico mostrou que haverá um aumento na deficiência hídrica. Com o aumento do período seco e do aumento da temperatura média poderá ocorrer uma queda na produtividade de sacarose da cana-de-açúcar.

water balance, Eta model, mean temperature

analise-comparativa-do-clima-atual-e-futuro-para-avaliar-a-expansao-da-cana-de-acucar-em-sao-paulo-02061715.pdf

http://www.cpa.unicamp.br/alcscens/docs/publicacoes/Analise%20comparativa%20do%20clima%20atual%20e%20futuro%20para%20avaliar%20a%20expansao%20da%20cana-de-acucar%20em%20Sao%20Paulo%20.pdf

Ano de publicação: 2011

Extremos de temperatura durante a fase do florescimento do café arábica causam abortamento de flores e perda na produção. Estudos de projeção climática, normalmente baseados em modelos de baixa resolução, já demonstram perdas na produção de café como conseqüência das altas temperaturas. No entanto, esses estudos têm uma menor precisão nas respostas por causa da resolução dos modelos, e novos estudos baseados em modelos de melhor resolução se tornam necessários. Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das implicações dos extremos de temperatura e precipitação na aptidão climática em municípios tradicionalmente produtores de café em Minas Gerais e São Paulo, utilizando o modelo climático Eta (40km de resolução). Primeiramente, as respostas do modelo foram comparadas com os dados climáticos atuais (dados observados). As projeções do modelo Eta foram satisfatórias porque seguem o padrão do clima já existente. Os dados do modelo demonstram um deslocamento do maior déficit hídrico do ano para o mês de setembro. O modelo projeta cenários com aumento de temperaturas, principalmente nos meses de setembro e outubro, que é o florescimento do café, impactando a produção de café arábica.

Aptidão climática, Café arábica, Eta

analise-dos-dados-de-projecao-climatica-do-modelo-eta-e-suas-implicacoes-para-a-cultura-do-cafe-arabica-02061715.pdf

Ano de publicação: 2011

O objetivo deste trabalho foi detectar municípios produtores de cana-de-açúcar no estado de São Paulo, similares, pelo método de agrupamento, analisando variáveis espectrais (NDVI), área plantada e produtividade no período de 2001 a 2009. O resultado dessa análise exploratória dos dados mostrou que a técnica é apropriada para a determinação de grupos de municípios com características semelhantes o que permite classificar as regiões automaticamente.

remote sensing, K-means biofuel

analise-temporal-de-municipios-produtores-cana-de-acucar-no-estado-de-sao-paulo-02061715.pdf

Ano de publicação: 2011

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

Coffea arabica, coffee rust, future scenarios, global warming

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-54052011000200001&lng=en&tlng=en

Ano de publicação: 2011

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18°C and 22°C, annual water deficit less than 100 mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1°C) less than 25%. An area is said to have “low climatic risks” for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1°C and 4°C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3°C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2°C and 4°C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3°C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.

Global Warming; Climatic Risk; Coffee Production; Current Climatic Condition; Arabica Coffee 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0058-0

Ano de publicação: 2010

As condições meteorológicas são determinantes para a produção agrícola; a precipitação, em particular, pode ser citada como a mais influente por sua relação direta com o balanço hídrico. Neste sentido, modelos agrometeorológicos, os quais se baseiam nas respostas das culturas às condições meteorológicas, vêm sendo cada vez mais utilizados para a estimativa de rendimentos agrícolas. Devido às dificuldades de obtenção de dados para abastecer tais modelos, métodos de estimativa de precipitação utilizando imagens dos canais espectrais dos satélites meteorológicos têm sido empregados para esta finalidade. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo utilizar o classificador de padrões "floresta de caminhos ótimos" para correlacionar informações disponíveis no canal espectral infravermelho do satélite meteorológico GOES-12 com a refletividade obtida pelo radar do IPMET/UNESP localizado no município de Bauru, visando o desenvolvimento de um modelo para a detecção de ocorrência de precipitação. Nos experimentos foram comparados quatro algoritmos de classificação: redes neurais artificiais (ANN), k-vizinhos mais próximos (k-NN), máquinas de vetores de suporte (SVM) e floresta de caminhos ótimos (OPF). Este último obteve melhor resultado, tanto em eficiência quanto em precisão.

Classificadores Supervisionados, Floresta de Caminhos Ótimos, GOES, Estimativa de Ocorrência de Precipitação

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862010000100002&lng=pt&tlng=pt

Ano de publicação: 2010

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.

Weather Forecast; Productivity Estimate; Ensemble Forecast; Forecast Period; Crop Cycle 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-010-0264-0

Ano de publicação: 2010

Para obter a refletância real da superfície, nas bandas 1 e 2 do sensor AVHRR, foi realizada a correção atmosférica, baseada na entrada dos parâmetros atmosféricos fornecidos pelo sensor MODIS/Terra. A utilização de dados do MODIS está diretamente relacionada à obtenção das informações, necessárias para a correção atmosférica, considerando-se a variabilidade dos parâmetros no tempo e no espaço. Utilizando-se o aplicativo SCORADIS, baseado no modelo de transferência radiativa 5S, foi proposta uma adaptação que possibilitasse a entrada das imagens correspondentes aos planos atmosféricos, através da utilização de metodologias distintas de correção atmosférica. As análises indicaram que as correções apresentaram resultados coerentes com eliminação dos efeitos de espalhamento e de absorção atmosférica. Foi avaliada a magnitude desses efeitos sobre o índice de vegetação NDVI, muito utilizado em estudos agrometeorológicos. A diferença percentual entre as imagens com e sem correção chegou a ser de aproximadamente 60 a 80% para as datas analisadas, ressaltando a importância da correção atmosférica dessas imagens.

efeitos atmosféricos, SCORADIS, MODIS

http://www.agraria.pro.br/ojs-2.4.6/index.php?journal=agraria&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=agraria_v5i2a530

Ano de publicação: 2009

The decision correctness in expert systems strongly depends on the accuracy of a pattern classifier, whose learning is performed from labeled training samples. Some systems, however, have to manage, store, and process a large amount of data, making also the computational efficiency of the classifier an important requirement. Examples are expert systems based on image analysis for medical diagnosis and weather forecasting. The learning time of any pattern classifier increases with the training set size, and this might be necessary to improve accuracy. However, the problem is more critical for some popular methods, such as artificial neural networks and support vector machines (SVM), than for a recently proposed approach, the optimum-path forest (OPF) classifier. In this letter, we go beyond by presenting a robust approach to reduce the training set size and still preserve good accuracy in OPF classification. We validate the method using some data sets and for rainfall occurrence estimation based on satellite image analysis. The experiments use SVM and OPF without pruning of training patterns as baselines.

Robustness, Management training, Support vector machines, Support vector machine classification, Image analysis, Expert systems, Computational efficiency, Medical expert systems, Diagnostic expert systems, Medical diagnosis

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/5357415/

Ano de publicação: 2008

O conhecimento dos prováveis impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a ocorrência de doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a elaboração de estratégias de controle. O presente trabalho teve por finalidade estudar os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a sigatoka-negra da bananeira, por meio da elaboração de mapas de distribuição da doença confeccionados a partir dos cenários disponibilizados pelo IPCC. Os mapas mostraram que haverá redução da área favorável à doença no país. Tal redução será gradativa para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 e de forma mais acentuada no cenário A2 que no B2. Apesar disso, extensas áreas ainda continuarão favoráveis à ocorrência da doença, especialmente no período de novembro a abril.

Mycosphaerella fijiensis, Musa spp., banana, plátano

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-41582007000300003&lng=pt&tlng=pt

Ano de publicação: 2008

O Brasil é o maior produtor mundial de cana-de-açúcar e conta com uma posição privilegiada para atender as necessidades mundiais de açúcar e álcool combustível. O país possui várias regiões produtoras, com safras alternadas, que podem garantir a presença do seu produto no mercado mundial, sendo o Estado de São Paulo a maior delas. Para tanto, é necessário estimar a produção da cana-de-açúcar com a maior precisão e antecipação possíveis, sendo que o sensoriamento remoto pode ser de grande utilidade nesse caso, devido à maior disponibilidade atual de dados e ao conhecimento já existente na utilização deles na área ambiental. Sendo o clima um dos principais fatores determinantes da produção agrícola, o conhecimento da sua infl uência na resposta espectral da vegetação pode ser de grande utilidade no apoio ao desenvolvimento de sistemas operacionais de monitoramento e previsão de safras da cana-de-açúcar. Sendo assim, este trabalho teve o objetivo principal de avaliar o grau de correlação existente entre a resposta espectral de plantios de cana-de-açúcar, expressa através de uma série temporal de valores do Índice de Vegetação da Diferença Normalizada (NDVI), determinada a partir de imagens do satélite AVHRR/NOAA, com dados agroclimáticos, em dez municípios localizados no Estado de São Paulo, no período de 2001 a 2007. Avaliou-se a série temporal de imagens como um todo, além de cada ano-safra, em particular, considerando a maior disponibilidade atual de dados de sensoriamento remoto orbital e a variabilidade climática existente ao longo dos seis anos-safra utilizados. Os perfi s temporais do índice NDVI foram obtidos através do processamento automático das imagens disponíveis que consistiu nas correções radiométrica e geométrica e no cálculo de imagens compostas, contendo os valores máximos mensais do NDVI. Dados agroclimáticos, ao longo do período de análise, foram descritos pelo índice ISNA (Índice de Satisfação das Necessidades de Água). Para determiná-lo, fez-se o balanço hídrico e calcularam-se as evapotranspirações real e máxima nas escalas decendial, quinzenal e mensal. As análises estatísticas realizadas apresentaram correlações signifi cativas entre os dados agroclimáticos (representado pelo ISNA) e a resposta espectral da cana-de-açúcar (representada pelos valores do NDVI), sendo que os melhores resultados foram obtidos na avaliação da série temporal como um todo. Esses resultados são de grande utilidade, por exemplo, na determinação de equações de estimativa do NDVI em relação ao ISNA, e vice-versa, a serem empregadas no apoio à estimativa da produção da cana-de-açúcar no país.

Sensoriamento remoto, Series temporais, Cana-de-açucar, Agricultura, Climatologia agricola, Processamento de imagens

http://www.sbagro.org.br/rbagro/ojs/index.php/rbagro/article/view/103

Ano de publicação: 2008

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961–1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Coffea arabica, Leucoptera coffeella, Meloidogyne incognita, global warming, pest zoning.

http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0100-204X2008000200005&lng=en&tlng=en